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Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Jessica E. Tierney

    (University of Arizona)

  • Jiang Zhu

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research
    University of Michigan)

  • Jonathan King

    (University of Arizona)

  • Steven B. Malevich

    (University of Arizona)

  • Gregory J. Hakim

    (University of Washington)

  • Christopher J. Poulsen

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), one of the best studied palaeoclimatic intervals, offers an excellent opportunity to investigate how the climate system responds to changes in greenhouse gases and the cryosphere. Previous work has sought to constrain the magnitude and pattern of glacial cooling from palaeothermometers1,2, but the uneven distribution of the proxies, as well as their uncertainties, has challenged the construction of a full-field view of the LGM climate state. Here we combine a large collection of geochemical proxies for sea surface temperature with an isotope-enabled climate model ensemble to produce a field reconstruction of LGM temperatures using data assimilation. The reconstruction is validated with withheld proxies as well as independent ice core and speleothem δ18O measurements. Our assimilated product provides a constraint on global mean LGM cooling of −6.1 degrees Celsius (95 per cent confidence interval: −6.5 to −5.7 degrees Celsius). Given assumptions concerning the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases, ice sheets and mineral dust aerosols, this cooling translates to an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.4 degrees Celsius (2.4–4.5 degrees Celsius), a value that is higher than previous LGM-based estimates but consistent with the traditional consensus range of 2–4.5 degrees Celsius3,4.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica E. Tierney & Jiang Zhu & Jonathan King & Steven B. Malevich & Gregory J. Hakim & Christopher J. Poulsen, 2020. "Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7822), pages 569-573, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:584:y:2020:i:7822:d:10.1038_s41586-020-2617-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2617-x
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    Cited by:

    1. E. W. Patterson & V. Skiba & A. Wolf & M. L. Griffiths & D. McGee & T. N. Bùi & M. X. Trần & T. H. Đinh & Q. Đỗ-Trọng & G. R. Goldsmith & V. Ersek & K. R. Johnson, 2024. "Local hydroclimate alters interpretation of speleothem δ18O records," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. M. H. Løland & Y. Krüger & A. Fernandez & F. Buckingham & S. A. Carolin & H. Sodemann & J. F. Adkins & K. M. Cobb & A. N. Meckler, 2022. "Evolution of tropical land temperature across the last glacial termination," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    3. Anne Dallmeyer & Thomas Kleinen & Martin Claussen & Nils Weitzel & Xianyong Cao & Ulrike Herzschuh, 2022. "The deglacial forest conundrum," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Jonathan King & Kevin J. Anchukaitis & Kathryn Allen & Tessa Vance & Amy Hessl, 2023. "Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. A. Morley & E. Vega & M. Raitzsch & J. Bijma & U. Ninnemann & G. L. Foster & T. B. Chalk & J. Meilland & R. R. Cave & J. V. Büscher & M. Kucera, 2024. "A solution for constraining past marine Polar Amplification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

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