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Role of anthropogenic forcing in Antarctic sea ice variability simulated in climate models

Author

Listed:
  • Yushi Morioka

    (VAiG, JAMSTEC)

  • Liping Zhang

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)

  • William Cooke

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Masami Nonaka

    (VAiG, JAMSTEC)

  • Swadhin K. Behera

    (VAiG, JAMSTEC)

  • Syukuro Manabe

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

Antarctic sea ice extent has seen a slight increase over recent decades, yet since 2016, it has undergone a sharp decline, reaching record lows. While the precise impact of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain, natural fluctuations have been shown to be important for this variability. Our study employs a series of coupled model experiments, revealing that with constant anthropogenic forcing, the primary driver of interannual sea ice variability lies in deep convection within the Southern Ocean, although it is model dependent. However, as anthropogenic forcing increases, the influence of deep convection weakens, and the Southern Annular Mode, an atmospheric intrinsic variability, plays a more significant role in the sea ice fluctuations owing to the shift from a zonal wavenumber-three pattern observed in the historical period. These model results indicate that surface air-sea interaction will play a more prominent role in Antarctic sea ice variability in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Yushi Morioka & Liping Zhang & William Cooke & Masami Nonaka & Swadhin K. Behera & Syukuro Manabe, 2024. "Role of anthropogenic forcing in Antarctic sea ice variability simulated in climate models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-54485-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54485-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wenju Cai & Fan Jia & Shujun Li & Ariaan Purich & Guojian Wang & Lixin Wu & Bolan Gan & Agus Santoso & Tao Geng & Benjamin Ng & Yun Yang & David Ferreira & Gerald A. Meehl & Michael J. McPhaden, 2023. "Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(3), pages 235-239, March.
    2. Thomas Rackow & Sergey Danilov & Helge F. Goessling & Hartmut H. Hellmer & Dmitry V. Sein & Tido Semmler & Dmitry Sidorenko & Thomas Jung, 2022. "Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Casimir de Lavergne & Jaime B. Palter & Eric D. Galbraith & Raffaele Bernardello & Irina Marinov, 2014. "Cessation of deep convection in the open Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 278-282, April.
    4. Guojian Wang & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Lixin Wu & John C. Fyfe & Sang-Wook Yeh & Benjamin Ng & Kai Yang & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 649-654, July.
    5. Liping Zhang & Thomas L. Delworth & William Cooke & Xiaosong Yang, 2019. "Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 59-65, January.
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