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Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends

Author

Listed:
  • Liping Zhang

    (Princeton University
    NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Thomas L. Delworth

    (Princeton University
    NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • William Cooke

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)

  • Xiaosong Yang

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temperature and sea-ice trends. These observed trends are consistent with a particular phase of natural variability of the Southern Ocean as derived from climate model simulations. Ensembles of simulations are conducted starting from differing phases of this variability. The observed spatial pattern of trends is reproduced in simulations that start from an active phase of Southern Ocean convection. Simulations starting from a neutral phase do not reproduce the observed changes, similarly to the multimodel mean results of CMIP5 models. The long timescales associated with this natural variability show potential for skilful decadal prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Liping Zhang & Thomas L. Delworth & William Cooke & Xiaosong Yang, 2019. "Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 59-65, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0350-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Yusen Liu & Cheng Sun & Jianping Li & Fred Kucharski & Emanuele Lorenzo & Muhammad Adnan Abid & Xichen Li, 2023. "Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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