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Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming

Author

Listed:
  • Hui Chen

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Yishuai Jin

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Zhengyu Liu

    (The Ohio State University
    Nanjing Normal University)

  • Daoxun Sun

    (Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Xianyao Chen

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Michael J. McPhaden

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)

  • Antonietta Capotondi

    (NOAA)

  • Xiaopei Lin

    (Ocean University of China)

Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific, whose nature nevertheless may change significantly in a warming climate. Here, we show that the predictability of ENSO may decrease in the future. Across the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we find a robust decrease of the persistence and predictability for the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO under global warming, notably in passing through the boreal spring. The strength of spring predictability barrier will be increased by 25% in the future. The reduced predictability of CP ENSO is caused by the faster warming over surface ocean in tropical Pacific and, in turn, the enhanced thermodynamical damping rate on CP ENSO in response to global warming. In contrast, the predictability of Eastern Pacific ENSO will not change. Our results suggest that future greenhouse warming will make the prediction of CP ENSO more challenging, with far-reaching implications on future climate predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Chen & Yishuai Jin & Zhengyu Liu & Daoxun Sun & Xianyao Chen & Michael J. McPhaden & Antonietta Capotondi & Xiaopei Lin, 2024. "Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48804-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48804-1
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    as
    1. Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Sang-Wook Yeh & Soon-Il An & Kim M. Cobb & Mat Collins & Eric Guilyardi & Fei-Fei Jin & Jong-Seong Kug & Matthieu Lengaigne & Michael J. McPhaden & Ken Takaha, 2015. "ENSO and greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 849-859, September.
    2. Guojian Wang & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Lixin Wu & John C. Fyfe & Sang-Wook Yeh & Benjamin Ng & Kai Yang & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 649-654, July.
    3. Tao Geng & Fan Jia & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Bolan Gan & Zhao Jing & Shujun Li & Michael J. McPhaden, 2023. "Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 619(7971), pages 774-781, July.
    4. Wenju Cai & Fan Jia & Shujun Li & Ariaan Purich & Guojian Wang & Lixin Wu & Bolan Gan & Agus Santoso & Tao Geng & Benjamin Ng & Yun Yang & David Ferreira & Gerald A. Meehl & Michael J. McPhaden, 2023. "Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(3), pages 235-239, March.
    5. Wenju Cai & Benjamin Ng & Guojian Wang & Agus Santoso & Lixin Wu & Kai Yang, 2022. "Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 228-231, March.
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