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Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Rackow

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

  • Sergey Danilov

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    Jacobs University Bremen)

  • Helge F. Goessling

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Hartmut H. Hellmer

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Dmitry V. Sein

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Tido Semmler

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Dmitry Sidorenko

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Thomas Jung

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Bremen)

Abstract

Despite global warming and Arctic sea-ice loss, on average the Antarctic sea-ice extent has not declined since 1979 when satellite data became available. In contrast, climate model simulations tend to exhibit strong negative sea-ice trends for the same period. This Antarctic sea-ice paradox leads to low confidence in 21st-century sea-ice projections. Here we present multi-resolution climate change projections that account for Southern Ocean mesoscale eddies. The high-resolution configuration simulates stable September Antarctic sea-ice extent that is not projected to decline until the mid-21st century. We argue that one reason for this finding is a more realistic ocean circulation that increases the equatorward heat transport response to global warming. As a result, the ocean becomes more efficient at moderating the anthropogenic warming around Antarctica and hence at delaying sea-ice decline. Our study suggests that explicitly simulating Southern Ocean eddies is necessary for providing Antarctic sea-ice projections with higher confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Rackow & Sergey Danilov & Helge F. Goessling & Hartmut H. Hellmer & Dmitry V. Sein & Tido Semmler & Dmitry Sidorenko & Thomas Jung, 2022. "Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28259-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28259-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Qinwang Xing & Haiqing Yu & Hui Wang, 2024. "Global mapping and evolution of persistent fronts in Large Marine Ecosystems over the past 40 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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