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Abruptly attenuated carbon sequestration with Weddell Sea dense waters by 2100

Author

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  • Cara Nissen

    (Alfred Wegener Institut, Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung)

  • Ralph Timmermann

    (Alfred Wegener Institut, Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung)

  • Mario Hoppema

    (Alfred Wegener Institut, Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung)

  • Özgür Gürses

    (Alfred Wegener Institut, Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung)

  • Judith Hauck

    (Alfred Wegener Institut, Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung)

Abstract

Antarctic Bottom Water formation, such as in the Weddell Sea, is an efficient vector for carbon sequestration on time scales of centuries. Possible changes in carbon sequestration under changing environmental conditions are unquantified to date, mainly due to difficulties in simulating the relevant processes on high-latitude continental shelves. Here, we use a model setup including both ice-shelf cavities and oceanic carbon cycling and demonstrate that by 2100, deep-ocean carbon accumulation in the southern Weddell Sea is abruptly attenuated to only 40% of the 1990s rate in a high-emission scenario, while the rate in the 2050s and 2080s is still 2.5-fold and 4-fold higher, respectively, than in the 1990s. Assessing deep-ocean carbon budgets and water mass transformations, we attribute this decline to an increased presence of modified Warm Deep Water on the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, a 16% reduction in sea-ice formation, and a 79% increase in ice-shelf basal melt. Altogether, these changes lower the density and volume of newly formed bottom waters and reduce the associated carbon transport to the abyss.

Suggested Citation

  • Cara Nissen & Ralph Timmermann & Mario Hoppema & Özgür Gürses & Judith Hauck, 2022. "Abruptly attenuated carbon sequestration with Weddell Sea dense waters by 2100," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30671-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30671-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xianxian Han & Andrew L. Stewart & Dake Chen & Markus Janout & Xiaohui Liu & Zhaomin Wang & Arnold L. Gordon, 2024. "Circum-Antarctic bottom water formation mediated by tides and topographic waves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Michael P. Meredith, 2022. "Carbon storage shifts around Antarctica," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-3, December.

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