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Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice

Author

Listed:
  • Yusen Liu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Cheng Sun

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Jianping Li

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Fred Kucharski

    (The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics)

  • Emanuele Lorenzo

    (Brown University)

  • Muhammad Adnan Abid

    (The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
    University of Oxford)

  • Xichen Li

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014–2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8–16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = −0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusen Liu & Cheng Sun & Jianping Li & Fred Kucharski & Emanuele Lorenzo & Muhammad Adnan Abid & Xichen Li, 2023. "Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44094-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. F. Alexander Haumann & Nicolas Gruber & Matthias Münnich & Ivy Frenger & Stefan Kern, 2016. "Sea-ice transport driving Southern Ocean salinity and its recent trends," Nature, Nature, vol. 537(7618), pages 89-92, September.
    2. Olivier Lecomte & Hugues Goosse & Thierry Fichefet & Casimir de Lavergne & Antoine Barthélemy & Violette Zunz, 2017. "Vertical ocean heat redistribution sustaining sea-ice concentration trends in the Ross Sea," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Thomas W. K. Armitage & Georgy E. Manucharyan & Alek A. Petty & Ron Kwok & Andrew F. Thompson, 2020. "Enhanced eddy activity in the Beaufort Gyre in response to sea ice loss," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Liping Zhang & Thomas L. Delworth & William Cooke & Xiaosong Yang, 2019. "Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 59-65, January.
    5. Xichen Li & David M. Holland & Edwin P. Gerber & Changhyun Yoo, 2014. "Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice," Nature, Nature, vol. 505(7484), pages 538-542, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li Zhang & Xuya Ren & Wenju Cai & Xichen Li & Lixin Wu, 2024. "Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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