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Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability

Author

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  • Guojian Wang

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Wenju Cai

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Agus Santoso

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    University of New South Wales)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • John C. Fyfe

    (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Sang-Wook Yeh

    (Hanyang University)

  • Benjamin Ng

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Kai Yang

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Michael J. McPhaden

    (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL))

Abstract

The Southern Ocean is a primary heat sink that buffers atmospheric warming and has warmed substantially, accounting for an outsized portion of global warming-induced excess heat in the climate system. However, its projected warming is highly uncertain and varies substantially across climate models. Here, using outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six models, we show that Southern Ocean warming during the twenty-first century is linked to the change in amplitude of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Models simulating a larger increase in ENSO amplitude systematically produce a slower Southern Ocean warming; conversely, a smaller increase in ENSO amplitude sees a stronger warming. The asymmetry in amplitude and teleconnection between El Niño and La Niña produce cumulative surface wind anomalies over the southern high latitudes, impacting Southern Ocean heat uptake. The magnitude of inter-model ENSO variations accounts for about 50% of the uncertainty in the projected Southern Ocean warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Guojian Wang & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Lixin Wu & John C. Fyfe & Sang-Wook Yeh & Benjamin Ng & Kai Yang & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 649-654, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01398-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01398-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Hui Chen & Yishuai Jin & Zhengyu Liu & Daoxun Sun & Xianyao Chen & Michael J. McPhaden & Antonietta Capotondi & Xiaopei Lin, 2024. "Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Yi Liu & Wenju Cai & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang, 2023. "Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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