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Multicentennial cycles in continental demography synchronous with solar activity and climate stability

Author

Listed:
  • Kai W. Wirtz

    (Helmholtz Zentrum Hereon
    Kiel University)

  • Nicolas Antunes

    (Leibniz-Zentrum für Archäologie
    German Archaeological Institute)

  • Aleksandr Diachenko

    (Institute of Archeology of the National Academy of Sciences)

  • Julian Laabs

    (Kiel University
    University of Leipzig)

  • Carsten Lemmen

    (Helmholtz Zentrum Hereon)

  • Gerrit Lohmann

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Rowan McLaughlin

    (Maynooth University)

  • Eduardo Zorita

    (Helmholtz Zentrum Hereon)

  • Detlef Gronenborn

    (Leibniz-Zentrum für Archäologie
    Johannes Gutenberg-University)

Abstract

Human population dynamics and their drivers are not well understood, especially over the long term and on large scales. Here, we estimate demographic growth trajectories from 9 to 3 ka BP across the entire globe by employing summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates. Our reconstruction reveals multicentennial growth cycles on all six inhabited continents, which exhibited matching dominant frequencies and phase relations. These growth oscillations were often also synchronised with multicentennial variations in solar activity. The growth cycle for Europe, reconstructed based on >91,000 radiocarbon dates, was backed by archaeology-derived settlement data and showed only a weak correlation with mean climate states, but a strong correlation with the stability of these states. We therefore suggest a link between multicentennial variations in solar activity and climate stability. This stability provided more favourable conditions for human subsistence success, and seems to have induced synchrony between regional growth cycles worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai W. Wirtz & Nicolas Antunes & Aleksandr Diachenko & Julian Laabs & Carsten Lemmen & Gerrit Lohmann & Rowan McLaughlin & Eduardo Zorita & Detlef Gronenborn, 2024. "Multicentennial cycles in continental demography synchronous with solar activity and climate stability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-54474-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54474-w
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