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Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions

Author

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  • Jed O. Kaplan

    (Department of Archaeology, Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Kahlaische Strasse 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
    ARVE Research Sàrl, 1009 Pully, Switzerland)

  • Kristen M. Krumhardt

    (Environmental Studies Program and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80303, USA)

  • Marie-José Gaillard

    (Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, 391 82 Kalmar, Sweden)

  • Shinya Sugita

    (Institute of Ecology, Tallinn University, 10120 Tallinn, Estonia)

  • Anna-Kari Trondman

    (Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, 391 82 Kalmar, Sweden)

  • Ralph Fyfe

    (School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK)

  • Laurent Marquer

    (Laboratoire Géographie de l’Environnement (GEODE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (UMR-CNRS 5602), Université Toulouse Jean Jaurès, 31058 Toulouse, France)

  • Florence Mazier

    (Laboratoire Géographie de l’Environnement (GEODE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (UMR-CNRS 5602), Université Toulouse Jean Jaurès, 31058 Toulouse, France)

  • Anne Birgitte Nielsen

    (Department of Geology, Lund University, 223 62 Lund, Sweden)

Abstract

Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) is the most important transformation of the Earth system that occurred in the preindustrial Holocene, with implications for carbon, water and sediment cycles, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services and regional and global climate. For example, anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial Eurasia may have led to feedbacks to the climate system: both biogeophysical, regionally amplifying winter cold and summer warm temperatures, and biogeochemical, stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and thus influencing global climate. Quantification of these effects is difficult, however, because scenarios of anthropogenic land cover change over the Holocene vary widely, with increasing disagreement back in time. Because land cover change had such widespread ramifications for the Earth system, it is essential to assess current ALCC scenarios in light of observations and provide guidance on which models are most realistic. Here, we perform a systematic evaluation of two widely-used ALCC scenarios (KK10 and HYDE3.1) in northern and part of central Europe using an independent, pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land cover (REVEALS). Considering that ALCC in Europe primarily resulted in deforestation, we compare modeled land use with the cover of non-forest vegetation inferred from the pollen data. Though neither land cover change scenario matches the pollen-based reconstructions precisely, KK10 correlates well with REVEALS at the country scale, while HYDE systematically underestimates land use with increasing magnitude with time in the past. Discrepancies between modeled and reconstructed land use are caused by a number of factors, including assumptions of per-capita land use and socio-cultural factors that cannot be predicted on the basis of the characteristics of the physical environment, including dietary preferences, long-distance trade, the location of urban areas and social organization.

Suggested Citation

  • Jed O. Kaplan & Kristen M. Krumhardt & Marie-José Gaillard & Shinya Sugita & Anna-Kari Trondman & Ralph Fyfe & Laurent Marquer & Florence Mazier & Anne Birgitte Nielsen, 2017. "Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:6:y:2017:i:4:p:91-:d:123498
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Shennan & Sean S. Downey & Adrian Timpson & Kevan Edinborough & Sue Colledge & Tim Kerig & Katie Manning & Mark G. Thomas, 2013. "Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    3. Egorova, Yana, 2017. "Инвестирование Денежных Средств В Условиях Экономического Кризиса В 2017 Году," MPRA Paper 77648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zhengang Wang & Thomas Hoffmann & Johan Six & Jed O. Kaplan & Gerard Govers & Sebastian Doetterl & Kristof Van Oost, 2017. "Human-induced erosion has offset one-third of carbon emissions from land cover change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 345-349, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giulio Fusco & Benedetta Coluccia & Federica De Leo, 2020. "Effect of Trade Openness on Food Security in the EU: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Fan Yang & Fanneng He & Shicheng Li, 2020. "Spatially Explicit Reconstruction of Anthropogenic Grassland Cover Change in China from 1700 to 2000," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Ryan E. Hughes & Erika Weiberg & Anton Bonnier & Martin Finné & Jed O. Kaplan, 2018. "Quantifying Land Use in Past Societies from Cultural Practice and Archaeological Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Fan Yang & Fanneng He & Shicheng Li & Meijiao Li, 2019. "Exploring Spatiotemporal Pattern of Grassland Cover in Western China from 1661 to 1996," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-17, August.
    5. Shuangxi Miao & Shuyu Wang & Chunyan Huang & Xiaohong Xia & Lingling Sang & Jianxi Huang & Han Liu & Zheng Zhang & Junxiao Zhang & Xu Huang & Fei Gao, 2023. "A Big Data Grided Organization and Management Method for Cropland Quality Evaluation," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-20, October.

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