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Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan

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  • Enrico R Crema
  • Junko Habu
  • Kenichi Kobayashi
  • Marco Madella

Abstract

Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD) of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido) and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico R Crema & Junko Habu & Kenichi Kobayashi & Marco Madella, 2016. "Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0154809
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0154809
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen Shennan & Sean S. Downey & Adrian Timpson & Kevan Edinborough & Sue Colledge & Tim Kerig & Katie Manning & Mark G. Thomas, 2013. "Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Fabio Silva & Chris J Stevens & Alison Weisskopf & Cristina Castillo & Ling Qin & Andrew Bevan & Dorian Q Fuller, 2015. "Modelling the Geographical Origin of Rice Cultivation in Asia Using the Rice Archaeological Database," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, September.
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    1. Luciano Prates & Gustavo G Politis & S Ivan Perez, 2020. "Rapid radiation of humans in South America after the last glacial maximum: A radiocarbon-based study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-22, July.
    2. Philip Riris & Fabio Silva, 2021. "Resolution and the detection of cultural dispersals: development and application of spatiotemporal methods in Lowland South America," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Enrico R Crema & Shinya Shoda, 2021. "A Bayesian approach for fitting and comparing demographic growth models of radiocarbon dates: A case study on the Jomon-Yayoi transition in Kyushu (Japan)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-26, May.
    4. Marko Porčić & Tamara Blagojević & Sofija Stefanović, 2016. "Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-12, August.
    5. Fabian Becker & Daniel Knitter & Moritz Nykamp & Brigitta Schütt, 2020. "Meta-Analysis of Geomorphodynamics in the Western Lower Bakırçay Plain (Aegean Region, Turkey)," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-29, September.
    6. Ryan E. Hughes & Erika Weiberg & Anton Bonnier & Martin Finné & Jed O. Kaplan, 2018. "Quantifying Land Use in Past Societies from Cultural Practice and Archaeological Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, January.

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