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Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions

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  • Marko Porčić
  • Tamara Blagojević
  • Sofija Stefanović

Abstract

The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC). These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Marko Porčić & Tamara Blagojević & Sofija Stefanović, 2016. "Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0160832
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0160832
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen Shennan & Sean S. Downey & Adrian Timpson & Kevan Edinborough & Sue Colledge & Tim Kerig & Katie Manning & Mark G. Thomas, 2013. "Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Enrico R Crema & Junko Habu & Kenichi Kobayashi & Marco Madella, 2016. "Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Ron Pinhasi & Noreen von Cramon-Taubadel, 2009. "Craniometric Data Supports Demic Diffusion Model for the Spread of Agriculture into Europe," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(8), pages 1-8, August.
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