IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v103y2016icp57-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How does technology and population progress relate? An empirical study of the last 10,000years

Author

Listed:
  • Dong, Jielin
  • Li, Wei
  • Cao, Yuhua
  • Fang, Jianwen

Abstract

The relationship between technology and population is a key element in economic growth theories. We offer the first empirical analysis using direct time series data of major science and technology accumulation and growth rate, to determine their relationship with population and population growth rate, upon their progresses of the last 10,000years. The main findings are: 1) relationships of science and technology growth rate with both population and population growth rate in the past ten thousand years are non-linear. There are multiple historical turning points and the linearity could be approximated only within certain shorter time periods. Therefore the linear relationship assumptions regarding technology and population in the endogenous economic growth theories are not accurate over long periods of history. 2) The causality study reveals that, science and technology growth rate Granger causes population growth rate; and science and technology accumulation Granger causes population growth rate. Such results indicate that science and technology growth does not only depend on the current generation of people as assumed by many models but also the achievements of past generations. 3) Both time series of the science and technology growth rate and the science and technology rate per capita indicate that human productivity across history presents a boom-and-bust nature. The last productivity surge begins around the middle of the 16th century, peaks at the early 20th century and starts a trend of decline since then.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong, Jielin & Li, Wei & Cao, Yuhua & Fang, Jianwen, 2016. "How does technology and population progress relate? An empirical study of the last 10,000years," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 57-70.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:103:y:2016:i:c:p:57-70
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162515003455
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2011. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2003-2041, August.
    3. Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 139-144, May.
    4. Coccia, Mario, 2014. "Driving forces of technological change: The relation between population growth and technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-65.
    5. Edmund Phelps, 2015. "Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10058-2.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    7. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    8. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    9. Modis, Theodore, 2005. "Discussion of Huebner Article," OSF Preprints nwzjr, Center for Open Science.
    10. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    11. Stephan Klasen & Thorsten Nestmann, 2006. "Population, population density and technological change," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(3), pages 611-626, July.
    12. Diego Comin & William Easterly & Erick Gong, 2010. "Was the Wealth of Nations Determined in 1000 BC?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 65-97, July.
    13. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    15. Comin, D. & Hobijn, B., 2004. "Cross-country technology adoption: making the theories face the facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 39-83, January.
    16. Malthus, Thomas Robert, 1798. "An Essay on the Principle of Population," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number malthus1798.
    17. Ian Morris, 2013. "The Measure of Civilization: How Social Development Decides the Fate of Nations," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9830.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Quan-Jing & Feng, Gen-Fu & Chen, Yin E. & Wen, Jun & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "The impacts of government ideology on innovation: What are the main implications?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1232-1247.
    2. Yiping Gao & Rong Yuan & Shenglin Zheng, 2022. "Effects of Human Capital on Energy Consumption: The Role of Income Inequality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Astrid Kander & Josef Taalbi & Juha Oksanen & Karolin Sjöö & Nina Rilla, 2019. "Innovation trends and industrial renewal in Finland and Sweden 1970–2013," Scandinavian Economic History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(1), pages 47-70, January.
    4. Betz, Ulrich A.K., 2018. "Is the force awakening?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 296-303.
    5. Wen, Jun & Okolo, Chukwuemeka Valentine & Ugwuoke, Ifeanyi Celestine & Kolani, Kibir, 2022. "Research on influencing factors of renewable energy, energy efficiency, on technological innovation. Does trade, investment and human capital development matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    2. Kawalec Paweł, 2020. "The dynamics of theories of economic growth: An impact of Unified Growth Theory," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 19-44, June.
    3. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    4. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    5. Iancu, Aurel, 2009. "Real Economic Convergence," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 090104, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    6. Adriana Di Liberto, 2007. "Convergence and Divergence in Neoclassical Growth Models with Human Capital," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 289-322.
    7. Jeon, Heesang, 2015. "Knowledge and Contemporary Capitalism in Light of Marx's Value Theory," Thesis Commons g5njk, Center for Open Science.
    8. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    9. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "The history augmented Solow model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 134-149.
    10. Boucekkine, R. & Martínez, B. & Ruiz-Tamarit, J.R., 2013. "Growth vs. level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 312-334.
    11. Brian Snowdon, 2008. "Towards a Unified Theory of Economic Growth," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 9(2), pages 97-151, April.
    12. Charles I. Jones & Paul M. Romer, 2010. "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 224-245, January.
    13. Kaixing Huang, 2016. "Population Growth, Human Capital Accumulation, and the Long-Run Dynamics of Economic Growth," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2016-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    14. Tsoukis, Christopher & Miller, Nigel James, 2008. "Learning, scale effects, and (very) long-run growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 446-462, May.
    15. Volker Grossmann & Thomas Steger, 2007. "Growth, Development, and Technological Change," CESifo Working Paper Series 1913, CESifo.
    16. Łukasz Jabłoński, 2011. "Kapitał ludzki w wybranych modelach wzrostu gospodarczego," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1-2, pages 81-103.
    17. Andreas Dietrich, 2012. "Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 915-944, December.
    18. Werner, Katharina & Prettner, Klaus, 2014. "Human capital, basic research, and applied research: three dimensions of human knowledge and their differential growth effects," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100448, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Jerry & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2019. "Economic growth in the long run," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-35.
    20. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Evolutionary And New Growth Theories. Are They Converging?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 585-627, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:103:y:2016:i:c:p:57-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.