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Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Shennan

    (Institute of Archaeology, University College London, 31-34 Gordon Square)

  • Sean S. Downey

    (Institute of Archaeology, University College London, 31-34 Gordon Square
    University of Maryland, 1111 Woods Hall, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA)

  • Adrian Timpson

    (Institute of Archaeology, University College London, 31-34 Gordon Square
    Evolution and Environment, University College London, Darwin Building, Gower Street)

  • Kevan Edinborough

    (Institute of Archaeology, University College London, 31-34 Gordon Square)

  • Sue Colledge

    (Institute of Archaeology, University College London, 31-34 Gordon Square)

  • Tim Kerig

    (Institute of Archaeology, University College London, 31-34 Gordon Square)

  • Katie Manning

    (Institute of Archaeology, University College London, 31-34 Gordon Square)

  • Mark G. Thomas

    (Evolution and Environment, University College London, Darwin Building, Gower Street)

Abstract

Following its initial arrival in SE Europe 8,500 years ago agriculture spread throughout the continent, changing food production and consumption patterns and increasing population densities. Here we show that, in contrast to the steady population growth usually assumed, the introduction of agriculture into Europe was followed by a boom-and-bust pattern in the density of regional populations. We demonstrate that summed calibrated radiocarbon date distributions and simulation can be used to test the significance of these demographic booms and busts in the context of uncertainty in the radiocarbon date calibration curve and archaeological sampling. We report these results for Central and Northwest Europe between 8,000 and 4,000 cal. BP and investigate the relationship between these patterns and climate. However, we find no evidence to support a relationship. Our results thus suggest that the demographic patterns may have arisen from endogenous causes, although this remains speculative.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Shennan & Sean S. Downey & Adrian Timpson & Kevan Edinborough & Sue Colledge & Tim Kerig & Katie Manning & Mark G. Thomas, 2013. "Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:4:y:2013:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms3486
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms3486
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gauthier, Nicolas, 2019. "Multilevel Simulation of Demography and Food Production in Ancient Agrarian Societies: A Case Study from Roman North Africa," SocArXiv 5be6a, Center for Open Science.
    2. Timothy J. Heaton, 2022. "Non‐parametric calibration of multiple related radiocarbon determinations and their calendar age summarisation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1918-1956, November.
    3. Philip Riris & Fabio Silva, 2021. "Resolution and the detection of cultural dispersals: development and application of spatiotemporal methods in Lowland South America," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Jed O. Kaplan & Kristen M. Krumhardt & Marie-José Gaillard & Shinya Sugita & Anna-Kari Trondman & Ralph Fyfe & Laurent Marquer & Florence Mazier & Anne Birgitte Nielsen, 2017. "Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Enrico R Crema & Shinya Shoda, 2021. "A Bayesian approach for fitting and comparing demographic growth models of radiocarbon dates: A case study on the Jomon-Yayoi transition in Kyushu (Japan)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-26, May.
    6. Mark Hudson & Junzō Uchiyama & Kati Lindström & Takamune Kawashima & Ian Reader & Tinka Delakorda Kawashima & Danièle Martin & J. Christoper Gillam & Linda Gilaizeau & Ilona R. Bausch & Kara C. Hoover, 2022. "Global processes of anthropogenesis characterise the early Anthropocene in the Japanese Islands," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Marko Porčić & Tamara Blagojević & Sofija Stefanović, 2016. "Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-12, August.
    8. Fabian Becker & Daniel Knitter & Moritz Nykamp & Brigitta Schütt, 2020. "Meta-Analysis of Geomorphodynamics in the Western Lower Bakırçay Plain (Aegean Region, Turkey)," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-29, September.
    9. Douglas J. Kennett & Marilyn Masson & Carlos Peraza Lope & Stanley Serafin & Richard J. George & Tom C. Spencer & Julie A. Hoggarth & Brendan J. Culleton & Thomas K. Harper & Keith M. Prufer & Susan M, 2022. "Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Daniel Plekhov & Thomas P. Leppard & John F. Cherry, 2021. "Island Colonization and Environmental Sustainability in the Postglacial Mediterranean," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Kenichi Aoki, 2020. "A three-population wave-of-advance model for the European early Neolithic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-15, May.
    12. Alejandro Ordonez & Felix Riede, 2022. "Changes in limiting factors for forager population dynamics in Europe across the last glacial-interglacial transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Enrico R Crema & Junko Habu & Kenichi Kobayashi & Marco Madella, 2016. "Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, April.

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