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Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Gerald A. Meehl

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Haiyan Teng

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Julie M. Arblaster

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research
    CAWCR)

Abstract

Accounting for natural decadal variability allows better prediction of short-term trends. This study looks at the ability of individual models, which are in phase with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, to simulate the current global warming slowdown. The authors highlight that the current trend could have been predicted in the 1990s with this technique and the need for consistent hindcast skills to allow reliable decadal predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald A. Meehl & Haiyan Teng & Julie M. Arblaster, 2014. "Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 898-902, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:4:y:2014:i:10:d:10.1038_nclimate2357
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2357
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    Cited by:

    1. Xueke Li & Amanda H. Lynch, 2023. "New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Young, Peter C., 2018. "Data-based mechanistic modelling and forecasting globally averaged surface temperature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 314-335.
    3. Feng Jiang & Richard Seager & Mark A. Cane, 2024. "A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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