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Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming

Author

Listed:
  • Tao Geng

    (Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Wenju Cai

    (Laoshan Laboratory
    Ocean University of China
    State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science & College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Fan Jia

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Laoshan Laboratory
    Ocean University of China)

Abstract

Under transient greenhouse warming, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to increase pre-2100, accompanied by an easier establishment of atmospheric convection in the equatorial eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature (SST) warms faster than surrounding regions. After 2100, how ENSO variability may change remains unknown. Here we find that under a high emission scenario, ENSO variability post-2100 reverses from the initial increase to an amplitude far smaller than that of the 20th century. The fast eastern warming persists and shrinks the equatorial Pacific non-convective area, such that establishing convection in the non-convective area, as during an El Niño, requires smaller convective anomaly, inducing weaker wind anomalies leading to reduced ENSO SST variability. The nonlinear ENSO response is thus a symptom of the persistent El Niño-like warming pattern. Therefore, the oscillatory ENSO impact could be replaced by that from the permanent El Niño-like mean condition with cumulative influences on affected regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Fan Jia & Lixin Wu, 2024. "Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-50156-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriel A. Vecchi & Andrew T. Wittenberg, 2010. "El Niño and our future climate: where do we stand?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), pages 260-270, March.
    2. Wenju Cai & Benjamin Ng & Guojian Wang & Agus Santoso & Lixin Wu & Kai Yang, 2022. "Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 228-231, March.
    3. Tapio Schneider & Tobias Bischoff & Gerald H. Haug, 2014. "Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone," Nature, Nature, vol. 513(7516), pages 45-53, September.
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