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Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Wenju Cai

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Benjamin Ng

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Guojian Wang

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Agus Santoso

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    The University of New South Wales)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Kai Yang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) underpins its global impact, and its future change is a long-standing science issue. In its sixth assessment, the IPCC reports no systematic change in ENSO SST variability under any emission scenarios considered. However, comparison between the 20th and 21st century shows a robust increase in century-long ENSO SST variability under four IPCC plausible emission scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenju Cai & Benjamin Ng & Guojian Wang & Agus Santoso & Lixin Wu & Kai Yang, 2022. "Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 228-231, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01282-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Hui Chen & Yishuai Jin & Zhengyu Liu & Daoxun Sun & Xianyao Chen & Michael J. McPhaden & Antonietta Capotondi & Xiaopei Lin, 2024. "Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Yi Liu & Wenju Cai & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang, 2023. "Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Neethu C & K V Ramesh, 2023. "Projected changes in heat wave characteristics over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Hosmay Lopez & Sang-Ki Lee & Dongmin Kim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Sang-Wook Yeh, 2022. "Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.

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