IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-44947-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A triple increase in global river basins with water scarcity due to future pollution

Author

Listed:
  • Mengru Wang

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Benjamin Leon Bodirsky

    (Leibniz Association)

  • Rhodé Rijneveld

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Felicitas Beier

    (Leibniz Association
    Humboldt University, Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences)

  • Mirjam P. Bak

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Masooma Batool

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Computational Hydrosystems)

  • Bram Droppers

    (Utrecht University)

  • Alexander Popp

    (Leibniz Association)

  • Michelle T. H. Vliet

    (Utrecht University)

  • Maryna Strokal

    (Wageningen University & Research)

Abstract

Water security is at stake today. While climate changes influence water availability, urbanization and agricultural activities have led to increasing water demand as well as pollution, limiting safe water use. We conducted a global assessment of future clean-water scarcity for 2050s by adding the water pollution aspect to the classical water quantity-induced scarcity assessments. This was done for >10,000 sub-basins focusing on nitrogen pollution in rivers by integrating land-system, hydrological and water quality models. We found that water pollution aggravates water scarcity in >2000 sub-basins worldwide. The number of sub-basins with water scarcity triples due to future nitrogen pollution worldwide. In 2010, 984 sub-basins are classified as water scarce when considering only quantity-induced scarcity, while 2517 sub-basins are affected by quantity & quality-induced scarcity. This number even increases to 3061 sub-basins in the worst case scenario in 2050. This aggravation means an extra 40 million km2 of basin area and 3 billion more people that may potentially face water scarcity in 2050. Our results stress the urgent need to address water quality in future water management policies for the Sustainable Development Goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Mengru Wang & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Rhodé Rijneveld & Felicitas Beier & Mirjam P. Bak & Masooma Batool & Bram Droppers & Alexander Popp & Michelle T. H. Vliet & Maryna Strokal, 2024. "A triple increase in global river basins with water scarcity due to future pollution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-44947-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-44947-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-44947-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-44947-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. J. Ascott & D. C. Gooddy & L. Wang & M. E. Stuart & M. A. Lewis & R. S. Ward & A. M. Binley, 2017. "Global patterns of nitrate storage in the vadose zone," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Mengru Wang & Annette B. G. Janssen & Jeanne Bazin & Maryna Strokal & Lin Ma & Carolien Kroeze, 2022. "Accounting for interactions between Sustainable Development Goals is essential for water pollution control in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Alam, Khorshed, 2015. "Farmers’ adaptation to water scarcity in drought-prone environments: A case study of Rajshahi District, Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 196-206.
    4. ChaoQing Yu & Xiao Huang & Han Chen & H. Charles J. Godfray & Jonathon S. Wright & Jim W. Hall & Peng Gong & ShaoQiang Ni & ShengChao Qiao & GuoRui Huang & YuChen Xiao & Jie Zhang & Zhao Feng & XiaoTa, 2019. "Managing nitrogen to restore water quality in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 567(7749), pages 516-520, March.
    5. Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Alexander Popp & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Jan Philipp Dietrich & Susanne Rolinski & Isabelle Weindl & Christoph Schmitz & Christoph Müller & Markus Bonsch & Florian Humpenöder &, 2014. "Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, September.
    6. P. Greve & T. Kahil & J. Mochizuki & T. Schinko & Y. Satoh & P. Burek & G. Fischer & S. Tramberend & R. Burtscher & S. Langan & Y. Wada, 2018. "Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 486-494, September.
    7. Federica Gasbarro & Francesco Rizzi & Marco Frey, 2016. "Adaptation Measures of Energy and Utility Companies to Cope with Water Scarcity Induced by Climate Change," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 54-72, January.
    8. Lan Xue & Lingfei Weng & Hanzhi Yu, 2018. "Addressing policy challenges in implementing Sustainable Development Goals through an adaptive governance approach: A view from transitional China," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 150-158, March.
    9. Marco Springmann & Michael Clark & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Keith Wiebe & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Luis Lassaletta & Wim Vries & Sonja J. Vermeulen & Mario Herrero & Kimberly M. Carlson & Malin Jonell & , 2018. "Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits," Nature, Nature, vol. 562(7728), pages 519-525, October.
    10. Fabio Farinosi & Carlo Giupponi & Arnaud Reynaud & Guido Ceccherini & César Carmona-Moreno & A.P.J. de Roo & D Gonzalez-Sanchez & Giovanni Bidoglio, 2018. "An innovative approach to the assessment of hydro-political risk: A spatially explicit, data driven indicator of hydro-political issues," Post-Print hal-02100434, HAL.
    11. Simon Gosling & Nigel Arnell, 2016. "A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 371-385, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hossein Mikhak & Mehdi Rahimian & Saeed Gholamrezai, 2022. "Implications of changing cropping pattern to low water demand plants due to climate change: evidence from Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 9833-9850, August.
    2. Panpan Ji & Jianhui Chen & Ruijin Chen & Jianbao Liu & Chaoqing Yu & Fahu Chen, 2024. "Nitrogen and phosphorus trends in lake sediments of China may diverge," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Junguo Liu & Delong Li & He Chen & Hong Wang & Yoshihide Wada & Matti Kummu & Simon Newland Gosling & Hong Yang & Yadu Pokhrel & Philippe Ciais, 2024. "Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Yingjun She & Ping Li & Xuebin Qi & Wei Guo & Shafeeq Ur Rahman & Hongfei Lu & Cancan Ma & Zhenjie Du & Jiaxin Cui & Zhijie Liang, 2022. "Effects of Shallow Groundwater Depth and Nitrogen Application Level on Soil Water and Nitrate Content, Growth and Yield of Winter Wheat," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Courtney M. Regan & Jeffery D. Connor & Md Sayed Iftekhar, 2023. "An economic assessment of options for operating within plantation forestry water entitlements and tightening cap and trade policy," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(2), pages 303-322, April.
    6. Wei, Zhibiao & Zhuang, Minghao & Hellegers, Petra & Cui, Zhenling & Hoffland, Ellis, 2023. "Towards circular nitrogen use in the agri-food system at village and county level in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    7. Wang, Jingjing, 2022. "Harnessing natural attenuation to reduce CAFOs nitrate emissions: An integrated modeling approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    8. Mengru Wang & Annette B. G. Janssen & Jeanne Bazin & Maryna Strokal & Lin Ma & Carolien Kroeze, 2022. "Accounting for interactions between Sustainable Development Goals is essential for water pollution control in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Bowles, Nicholas & Alexander, Samuel & Hadjikakou, Michalis, 2019. "The livestock sector and planetary boundaries: A ‘limits to growth’ perspective with dietary implications," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 128-136.
    10. Ramsha Munir & Tehzeeb Bano & Iftikhar Hussain Adil & Umer Khayyam, 2021. "Perceptions of Glacier Grafting: An Indigenous Technique of Water Conservation for Food Security in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, May.
    11. Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez & Consuelo Varela-Ortega & Rhys Manners, 2020. "Evaluating Animal-Based Foods and Plant-Based Alternatives Using Multi-Criteria and SWOT Analyses," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-26, October.
    12. Vermunt, D.A. & Wojtynia, N. & Hekkert, M.P. & Van Dijk, J. & Verburg, R. & Verweij, P.A. & Wassen, M. & Runhaar, H., 2022. "Five mechanisms blocking the transition towards ‘nature-inclusive’ agriculture: A systemic analysis of Dutch dairy farming," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    13. Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie & Maruf Yakubu Ahmed & Phebe Asantewaa Owusu, 2022. "Global adaptation readiness and income mitigate sectoral climate change vulnerabilities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Li, Yilin & Chen, Bin & Li, Chaohui & Li, Zhi & Chen, Guoqian, 2020. "Energy perspective of Sino-US trade imbalance in global supply chains," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Birgit Kopainsky & Anita Frehner & Adrian Müller, 2020. "Sustainable and healthy diets: Synergies and trade‐offs in Switzerland," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 908-927, November.
    16. Heng Liu & Caizhu Huang & Heng Lian & Xia Cui, 2023. "Hierarchical Spatially Varying Coefficient Process Regression for Modeling Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs (NANI) from the Watershed of the Yangtze River, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-15, August.
    17. Satar Bakhsh & Md Shabbir Alam & Wei Zhang, 2024. "Green finance and Sustainable Development Goals: is there a role for geopolitical uncertainty?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-30, August.
    18. Thu-Huong Nguyen & Oz Sahin & Michael Howes, 2021. "Climate Change Adaptation Influences and Barriers Impacting the Asian Agricultural Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-17, June.
    19. Nuno Aluai Carvalho & Maria da Conceição Martins, 2024. "Education to Promote Healthy and Sustainable Eating Habits: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-14, November.
    20. Yu, Rong & Li, Jianhong, 2024. "Does fintech influence sustainable development under natural resource constraints: insights from 270 Chinese cities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-44947-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.