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Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Springmann

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Michael Clark

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Daniel Mason-D’Croz

    (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
    Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)

  • Keith Wiebe

    (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI))

  • Benjamin Leon Bodirsky

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Luis Lassaletta

    (CEIGRAM/Agricultural Production, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

  • Wim Vries

    (Wageningen University)

  • Sonja J. Vermeulen

    (WWF International
    Hoffmann Centre for Sustainable Resource Economy, Chatham House)

  • Mario Herrero

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)

  • Kimberly M. Carlson

    (University of Hawai’i at Manoa)

  • Malin Jonell

    (Stockholm University)

  • Max Troell

    (Stockholm University
    The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences)

  • Fabrice DeClerck

    (EAT
    Bioversity International)

  • Line J. Gordon

    (Stockholm University)

  • Rami Zurayk

    (Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, American University of Beirut)

  • Peter Scarborough

    (University of Oxford)

  • Mike Rayner

    (University of Oxford)

  • Brent Loken

    (Stockholm University
    EAT)

  • Jess Fanzo

    (Berman Institute of Bioethics, Johns Hopkins University
    Johns Hopkins University)

  • H. Charles J. Godfray

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • David Tilman

    (Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota
    University of California)

  • Johan Rockström

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Stockholm University)

  • Walter Willett

    (Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health)

Abstract

The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50–90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Springmann & Michael Clark & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Keith Wiebe & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Luis Lassaletta & Wim Vries & Sonja J. Vermeulen & Mario Herrero & Kimberly M. Carlson & Malin Jonell & , 2018. "Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits," Nature, Nature, vol. 562(7728), pages 519-525, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:562:y:2018:i:7728:d:10.1038_s41586-018-0594-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0
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