IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-44749-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Acceleration of the ocean warming from 1961 to 2022 unveiled by large-ensemble reanalyses

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Storto

    (National Research Council (CNR))

  • Chunxue Yang

    (National Research Council (CNR))

Abstract

Long-term changes in ocean heat content (OHC) represent a fundamental global warming indicator and are mostly caused by anthropogenic climate-altering gas emissions. OHC increases heavily threaten the marine environment, therefore, reconstructing OHC before the well-instrumented period (i.e., before the Argo floats deployment in the mid-2000s) is crucial to understanding the multi-decadal climate change in the ocean. Here, we shed light on ocean warming and its uncertainty for the 1961-2022 period through a large ensemble reanalysis system that spans the major sources of uncertainties. Results indicate a 62-year warming of 0.43 ± 0.08 W m−2, and a statistically significant acceleration rate equal to 0.15 ± 0.04 W m−2 dec−1, locally peaking at high latitudes. The 11.6% of the global ocean area reaches the maximum yearly OHC in 2022, almost doubling any previous year. At the regional scale, major OHC uncertainty is found in the Tropics; at the global scale, the uncertainty represents about 40% and 15% of the OHC variability, respectively before and after the mid-2000s. The uncertainty of regional trends is mostly affected by observation calibration (especially at high latitudes), and sea surface temperature data uncertainty (especially at low latitudes).

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Storto & Chunxue Yang, 2024. "Acceleration of the ocean warming from 1961 to 2022 unveiled by large-ensemble reanalyses," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-44749-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-44749-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-44749-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-44749-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhe Li & Qinghua Ding & Michael Steele & Axel Schweiger, 2022. "Recent upper Arctic Ocean warming expedited by summertime atmospheric processes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Junde Li & Moninya Roughan & Colette Kerry, 2022. "Drivers of ocean warming in the western boundary currents of the Southern Hemisphere," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(10), pages 901-909, October.
    3. Gregory C. Johnson & John M. Lyman, 2020. "Warming trends increasingly dominate global ocean," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 757-761, August.
    4. Sigrid Lind & Randi B. Ingvaldsen & Tore Furevik, 2018. "Arctic warming hotspot in the northern Barents Sea linked to declining sea-ice import," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 634-639, July.
    5. A. Bagnell & T. DeVries, 2021. "20th century cooling of the deep ocean contributed to delayed acceleration of Earth’s energy imbalance," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Benoit Meyssignac & Michael Ablain & Adrien Guérou & Pierre Prandi & Anne Barnoud & Alejandro Blazquez & Sébastien Fourest & Victor Rousseau & Pascal Bonnefond & Anny Cazenave & Jonathan Chenal & Gera, 2023. "How accurate is accurate enough for measuring sea-level rise and variability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(8), pages 796-803, August.
    7. Nicolas Gruber & Philip W. Boyd & Thomas L. Frölicher & Meike Vogt, 2021. "Biogeochemical extremes and compound events in the ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 600(7889), pages 395-407, December.
    8. Stephen C. Riser & Howard J. Freeland & Dean Roemmich & Susan Wijffels & Ariel Troisi & Mathieu Belbéoch & Denis Gilbert & Jianping Xu & Sylvie Pouliquen & Ann Thresher & Pierre-Yves Le Traon & Guilla, 2016. "Fifteen years of ocean observations with the global Argo array," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 145-153, February.
    9. Jia-Rui Shi & Lynne D. Talley & Shang-Ping Xie & Qihua Peng & Wei Liu, 2021. "Ocean warming and accelerating Southern Ocean zonal flow," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1090-1097, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhi Li & Matthew H. England & Sjoerd Groeskamp, 2023. "Recent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Shuai Zhang & Zhoufei Yu & Yue Wang & Xun Gong & Ann Holbourn & Fengming Chang & Heng Liu & Xuhua Cheng & Tiegang Li, 2022. "Thermal coupling of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Southern Ocean over the past 30,000 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Yoko Yamagami & Masahiro Watanabe & Masato Mori & Jun Ono, 2022. "Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Sauterey, Boris & Gland, Guillaume Le & Cermeño, Pedro & Aumont, Olivier & Lévy, Marina & Vallina, Sergio M., 2023. "Phytoplankton adaptive resilience to climate change collapses in case of extreme events – A modeling study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    5. Hailin Wang & Bo Qiu & Hanrui Liu & Zhengguang Zhang, 2023. "Doubling of surface oceanic meridional heat transport by non-symmetry of mesoscale eddies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Manuel O. Gutierrez-Villanueva & Teresa K. Chereskin & Janet Sprintall, 2023. "Compensating transport trends in the Drake Passage frontal regions yield no acceleration in net transport," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. S. B. Cornish & H. L. Johnson & R. D. C. Mallett & J. Dörr & Y. Kostov & A. E. Richards, 2022. "Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. James E. Overland, 2021. "Rare events in the Arctic," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-13, October.
    9. Sayed Saad Afzal & Waleed Akbar & Osvy Rodriguez & Mario Doumet & Unsoo Ha & Reza Ghaffarivardavagh & Fadel Adib, 2022. "Battery-free wireless imaging of underwater environments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. J. Haacker & B. Wouters & X. Fettweis & I. A. Glissenaar & J. E. Box, 2024. "Atmospheric-river-induced foehn events drain glaciers on Novaya Zemlya," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Ying Zhang & Yan Du & Ming Feng & Alistair J. Hobday, 2023. "Vertical structures of marine heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Jie Huang & Robert S. Pickart & Zhuomin Chen & Rui Xin Huang, 2023. "Role of air-sea heat flux on the transformation of Atlantic Water encircling the Nordic Seas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    13. Benjamin A. Storer & Michele Buzzicotti & Hemant Khatri & Stephen M. Griffies & Hussein Aluie, 2022. "Global energy spectrum of the general oceanic circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. Caroline V. B. Gjelstrup & Mikael K. Sejr & Laura Steur & Jørgen Schou Christiansen & Mats A. Granskog & Boris P. Koch & Eva Friis Møller & Mie H. S. Winding & Colin A. Stedmon, 2022. "Vertical redistribution of principle water masses on the Northeast Greenland Shelf," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Changyu Li & Jianping Huang & Xiaoyue Liu & Lei Ding & Yongli He & Yongkun Xie, 2024. "The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Carsten Bjerre Ludwigsen & Ole Baltazar Andersen & Ben Marzeion & Jan-Hendrik Malles & Hannes Müller Schmied & Petra Döll & Christopher Watson & Matt A. King, 2024. "Global and regional ocean mass budget closure since 2003," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Kathrin Busch & Beate M. Slaby & Wolfgang Bach & Antje Boetius & Ina Clefsen & Ana Colaço & Marie Creemers & Javier Cristobo & Luisa Federwisch & Andre Franke & Asimenia Gavriilidou & Andrea Hethke & , 2022. "Biodiversity, environmental drivers, and sustainability of the global deep-sea sponge microbiome," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    18. Friedrich A. Burger & Jens Terhaar & Thomas L. Frölicher, 2022. "Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Rashit M. Hantemirov & Christophe Corona & Sébastien Guillet & Stepan G. Shiyatov & Markus Stoffel & Timothy J. Osborn & Thomas M. Melvin & Ludmila A. Gorlanova & Vladimir V. Kukarskih & Alexander Y. , 2022. "Current Siberian heating is unprecedented during the past seven millennia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    20. Maurice F. Huguenin & Ryan M. Holmes & Matthew H. England, 2022. "Drivers and distribution of global ocean heat uptake over the last half century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-44749-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.