IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-34414-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections

Author

Listed:
  • Dániel Topál

    (Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, MTA-Centre for Excellence, ELKH
    University of California-Santa Barbara
    ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Doctoral School of Environmental Sciences)

  • Qinghua Ding

    (University of California-Santa Barbara)

  • Thomas J. Ballinger

    (University of Alaska Fairbanks)

  • Edward Hanna

    (University of Lincoln)

  • Xavier Fettweis

    (University of Liège)

  • Zhe Li

    (University of California-Santa Barbara)

  • Ildikó Pieczka

    (ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, Department of Meteorology)

Abstract

While climate models project that Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt will continue to accelerate with climate change, models exhibit limitations in capturing observed connections between GrIS melt and changes in high-latitude atmospheric circulation. Here we impose observed Arctic winds in a fully-coupled climate model with fixed anthropogenic forcing to quantify the influence of the rotational component of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability over the Arctic on the temperature field and the surface mass/energy balances through adiabatic processes. We show that recent changes involving mid-to-upper-tropospheric anticyclonic wind anomalies – linked with tropical forcing – explain half of the observed Greenland surface warming and ice loss acceleration since 1990, suggesting a pathway for large-scale winds to potentially enhance sea-level rise by ~0.2 mm/year per decade. We further reveal fingerprints of this observed teleconnection in paleo-reanalyses spanning the past 400 years, which heightens concern about model limitations to capture wind-driven adiabatic processes associated with GrIS melt.

Suggested Citation

  • Dániel Topál & Qinghua Ding & Thomas J. Ballinger & Edward Hanna & Xavier Fettweis & Zhe Li & Ildikó Pieczka, 2022. "Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34414-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34414-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34414-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-34414-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiang Zhu & Christopher J. Poulsen & Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, 2020. "High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(5), pages 378-379, May.
    2. Zhe Li & Qinghua Ding & Michael Steele & Axel Schweiger, 2022. "Recent upper Arctic Ocean warming expedited by summertime atmospheric processes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Stefan Rahmstorf & Jason E. Box & Georg Feulner & Michael E. Mann & Alexander Robinson & Scott Rutherford & Erik J. Schaffernicht, 2015. "Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 475-480, May.
    4. Xianyao Chen & Xuebin Zhang & John A. Church & Christopher S. Watson & Matt A. King & Didier Monselesan & Benoit Legresy & Christopher Harig, 2017. "The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 492-495, July.
    5. Jason P. Briner & Joshua K. Cuzzone & Jessica A. Badgeley & Nicolás E. Young & Eric J. Steig & Mathieu Morlighem & Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel & Gregory J. Hakim & Joerg M. Schaefer & Jesse V. Johnson & Al, 2020. "Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century," Nature, Nature, vol. 586(7827), pages 70-74, October.
    6. Stefan Hofer & Charlotte Lang & Charles Amory & Christoph Kittel & Alison Delhasse & Andrew Tedstone & Xavier Fettweis, 2020. "Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Stefan Hofer & Andrew J. Tedstone & Xavier Fettweis & Jonathan L. Bamber, 2019. "Cloud microphysics and circulation anomalies control differences in future Greenland melt," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 523-528, July.
    8. K. Van Tricht & S. Lhermitte & J. T. M. Lenaerts & I. V. Gorodetskaya & T. S. L’Ecuyer & B. Noël & M. R. van den Broeke & D. D. Turner & N. P. M. van Lipzig, 2016. "Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, April.
    9. Thomas Slater & Anna E. Hogg & Ruth Mottram, 2020. "Ice-sheet losses track high-end sea-level rise projections," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 879-881, October.
    10. Qinghua Ding & John M. Wallace & David S. Battisti & Eric J. Steig & Ailie J. E. Gallant & Hyung-Jin Kim & Lei Geng, 2014. "Tropical forcing of the recent rapid Arctic warming in northeastern Canada and Greenland," Nature, Nature, vol. 509(7499), pages 209-212, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. C. Ryan & L. C. Smith & S. W. Cooley & B. Pearson & N. Wever & E. Keenan & J. T. M. Lenaerts, 2022. "Decreasing surface albedo signifies a growing importance of clouds for Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater production," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Liangying Zeng & Yao Ha & Chuanfeng Zhao & Haixia Dai & Yimin Zhu & Yijia Hu & Xiaoyu Zhu & Zhiyuan Ding & Yudi Liu & Zhong Zhong, 2024. "Tropical cyclone activity over western North Pacific favors Arctic sea ice increase," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Thomas Slater & Andrew Shepherd & Malcolm McMillan & Amber Leeson & Lin Gilbert & Alan Muir & Peter Kuipers Munneke & Brice Noël & Xavier Fettweis & Michiel Broeke & Kate Briggs, 2021. "Increased variability in Greenland Ice Sheet runoff from satellite observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Weiqing Han & Lei Zhang & Gerald A. Meehl & Shoichiro Kido & Tomoki Tozuka & Yuanlong Li & Michael J. McPhaden & Aixue Hu & Anny Cazenave & Nan Rosenbloom & Gary Strand & B. Jason West & Wen Xing, 2022. "Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Frédéric Lasserre, 2022. "Canadian Arctic Marine Transportation Issues, Opportunities and Challenges," SPP Research Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 15(6), February.
    6. Hiroshi Sumata & Laura Steur & Sebastian Gerland & Dmitry V. Divine & Olga Pavlova, 2022. "Unprecedented decline of Arctic sea ice outflow in 2018," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Jonathon R. Preece & Thomas L. Mote & Judah Cohen & Lori J. Wachowicz & John A. Knox & Marco Tedesco & Gabriel J. Kooperman, 2023. "Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Ilaria Tabone & Alexander Robinson & Marisa Montoya & Jorge Alvarez-Solas, 2024. "Holocene thinning in central Greenland controlled by the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Xuan Shan & Shantong Sun & Lixin Wu & Michael Spall, 2024. "Role of the Labrador Current in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation response to greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    10. Sara Berglund & Kristofer Döös & Sjoerd Groeskamp & Trevor J. McDougall, 2022. "The downward spiralling nature of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    11. Dmitry Orlov & Marija Menshakova & Tomas Thierfelder & Yulia Zaika & Sepp Böhme & Birgitta Evengard & Natalia Pshenichnaya, 2020. "Healthy Ecosystems Are a Prerequisite for Human Health—A Call for Action in the Era of Climate Change with a Focus on Russia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-11, November.
    12. Denis L. Volkov & Ryan H. Smith & Rigoberto F. Garcia & David A. Smeed & Ben I. Moat & William E. Johns & Molly O. Baringer, 2024. "Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Yashna Devi Beeharry & Girish Bekaroo & Chandradeo Bokhoree & Michael Robert Phillips, 2022. "Impacts of sea-level rise on coastal zones of Mauritius: insights following calculation of a coastal vulnerability index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 27-55, October.
    14. Zhang, Dongna & Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2023. "Impacts of weather conditions on the US commodity markets systemic interdependence across multi-timescales," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    15. Janne von Seggern, 2020. "Understandings, Practices and Human-Environment Relationships—A Meta-Ethnographic Analysis of Local and Indigenous Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in Selected Pacific Island States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    16. Denis L. Volkov & Kate Zhang & William E. Johns & Joshua K. Willis & Will Hobbs & Marlos Goes & Hong Zhang & Dimitris Menemenlis, 2023. "Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. M. S. Sthel & J. G. R. Tostes & J. R. Tavares, 2017. "Sustainable Geometric and Bio-Cultural/Cultural Models of Human Society: The Role of Non-Capitalist Cooperation in Times of Civilizational/Environmental Crisis," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, March.
    18. Botao Zhou & Ziyi Song & Zhicong Yin & Xinping Xu & Bo Sun & Pangchi Hsu & Haishan Chen, 2024. "Recent autumn sea ice loss in the eastern Arctic enhanced by summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Qinxue Gu & Melissa Gervais & Gokhan Danabasoglu & Who M. Kim & Frederic Castruccio & Elizabeth Maroon & Shang-Ping Xie, 2024. "Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Fernández-González, Raquel & Puime-Guillén, Félix & Panait, Mirela, 2022. "Multilevel governance, PV solar energy, and entrepreneurship: the generation of green hydrogen as a fuel of renewable origin," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34414-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.