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Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response

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  • King-Fai Li

    (University of California)

  • Ka-Kit Tung

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~ 100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed historical warming response to historical forcing and their uncertainty spread is just as wide, mainly due to forcing uncertainty, and especially that of aerosols. Contrary, no aerosols are involved in solar-cycle forcing, providing an independent, tighter, constraint. Here, we define a climate sensitivity metric: time-dependent response regressed against time-dependent forcing, allowing phenomena with dissimilar time variations, such as the solar cycle with 11-year cyclic forcing, to be used to constrain TCR, which has a linear time-dependent forcing. We find a theoretical linear relationship between the two. The latest coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models obey the same linear relationship statistically. The proposed observational constraint on TCR is about $${{1}}/{{3}}$$ 1 / 3 as narrow as existing constraints. The central estimate, 2.2 oC, is at the midpoint of the spread of the latest generation of climate models, which are more sensitive than those of the previous generations.

Suggested Citation

  • King-Fai Li & Ka-Kit Tung, 2023. "Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-43583-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43583-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Richardson & Kevin Cowtan & Ed Hawkins & Martin B. Stolpe, 2016. "Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 931-935, October.
    2. Alex Hall & Peter Cox & Chris Huntingford & Stephen Klein, 2019. "Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(4), pages 269-278, April.
    3. Xianyao Chen & Ka-Kit Tung, 2018. "Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation," Nature, Nature, vol. 559(7714), pages 387-391, July.
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