IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-43583-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response

Author

Listed:
  • King-Fai Li

    (University of California)

  • Ka-Kit Tung

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~ 100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed historical warming response to historical forcing and their uncertainty spread is just as wide, mainly due to forcing uncertainty, and especially that of aerosols. Contrary, no aerosols are involved in solar-cycle forcing, providing an independent, tighter, constraint. Here, we define a climate sensitivity metric: time-dependent response regressed against time-dependent forcing, allowing phenomena with dissimilar time variations, such as the solar cycle with 11-year cyclic forcing, to be used to constrain TCR, which has a linear time-dependent forcing. We find a theoretical linear relationship between the two. The latest coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models obey the same linear relationship statistically. The proposed observational constraint on TCR is about $${{1}}/{{3}}$$ 1 / 3 as narrow as existing constraints. The central estimate, 2.2 oC, is at the midpoint of the spread of the latest generation of climate models, which are more sensitive than those of the previous generations.

Suggested Citation

  • King-Fai Li & Ka-Kit Tung, 2023. "Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-43583-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43583-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43583-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-43583-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Richardson & Kevin Cowtan & Ed Hawkins & Martin B. Stolpe, 2016. "Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 931-935, October.
    2. Alex Hall & Peter Cox & Chris Huntingford & Stephen Klein, 2019. "Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(4), pages 269-278, April.
    3. Xianyao Chen & Ka-Kit Tung, 2018. "Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation," Nature, Nature, vol. 559(7714), pages 387-391, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Serge Mandiefe Piabuo & Peter A. Minang & Chupezi Julius Tieguhong & Divine Foundjem-Tita & Frankline Nghobuoche, 2021. "Illegal logging, governance effectiveness and carbon dioxide emission in the timber-producing countries of Congo Basin and Asia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14176-14196, October.
    3. Rémy Bonnet & Didier Swingedouw & Guillaume Gastineau & Olivier Boucher & Julie Deshayes & Frédéric Hourdin & Juliette Mignot & Jérôme Servonnat & Adriana Sima, 2021. "Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Yancheng Zhang & Xufeng Zheng & Deming Kong & Hong Yan & Zhonghui Liu, 2021. "Enhanced North Pacific subtropical gyre circulation during the late Holocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Bruns, Stephan B. & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2020. "A multicointegration model of global climate change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 175-197.
    6. Kailiang Yu & Philippe Ciais & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Zhihua Liu & Han Y. H. Chen & Jonathan Barichivich & Craig D. Allen & Hui Yang & Yuanyuan Huang & Ashley P. Ballantyne, 2022. "Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. G. Cornelis van Kooten & Mark E. Eiswerth & Jonathon Izett & Alyssa R. Russell, 2021. "Climate Change and the Social Cost of Carbon: DICE Explained and Expanded," Working Papers 2021-01, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    8. Alexandra Jonko & Nathan M. Urban & Balu Nadiga, 2018. "Towards Bayesian hierarchical inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity from a combination of CMIP5 climate models and observational data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 247-260, July.
    9. Chunli Zhao & Jianguo Chen & Guofeng Su & Hongyong Yuan, 2020. "Assessment of the climate change adaptation capacity of urban agglomerations in China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 221-236, February.
    10. Yan Yu & Jiafu Mao & Stan D. Wullschleger & Anping Chen & Xiaoying Shi & Yaoping Wang & Forrest M. Hoffman & Yulong Zhang & Eric Pierce, 2022. "Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Wenxia Zhang & Kalli Furtado & Tianjun Zhou & Peili Wu & Xiaolong Chen, 2022. "Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Yuchuan Lai & Matteo Pozzi, 2024. "Sequential learning of climate change via a physical-parameter-based state-space model and Bayesian inference," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(6), pages 1-22, June.
    13. D. M. Smith & R. Eade & M. B. Andrews & H. Ayres & A. Clark & S. Chripko & C. Deser & N. J. Dunstone & J. García-Serrano & G. Gastineau & L. S. Graff & S. C. Hardiman & B. He & L. Hermanson & T. Jung , 2022. "Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Maya Ben-Yami & Vanessa Skiba & Sebastian Bathiany & Niklas Boers, 2023. "Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Wenyu Zhou & L. Ruby Leung & Nicholas Siler & Jian Lu, 2023. "Future precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    17. Changyu Li & Jianping Huang & Xiaoyue Liu & Lei Ding & Yongli He & Yongkun Xie, 2024. "The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Theodore G. Shepherd, 2021. "Bringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in climate-change science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-19, November.
    19. Ziming Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Xiaolong Chen & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang & Mingna Wu & Liwei Zou, 2022. "Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Piers M. Forster & Harriet I. Forster & Mat J. Evans & Matthew J. Gidden & Chris D. Jones & Christoph A. Keller & Robin D. Lamboll & Corinne Le Quéré & Joeri Rogelj & Deborah Rosen & Carl-Friedrich Sc, 2020. "Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 913-919, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-43583-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.