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Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroyuki Murakami

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University)

  • Gabriel A. Vecchi

    (Princeton University
    Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University)

  • Seth Underwood

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

Abstract

In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s −1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroyuki Murakami & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Seth Underwood, 2017. "Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 885-889, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-017-0008-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6
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    Cited by:

    1. A. D. Rao & Puja Upadhaya & Smita Pandey & Jismy Poulose, 2020. "Simulation of extreme water levels in response to tropical cyclones along the Indian coast: a climate change perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 151-172, January.
    2. Yasmin Zahan & Rahul Mahanta & P. V. Rajesh & B. N. Goswami, 2021. "Impact of climate change on North-East India (NEI) summer monsoon rainfall," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Atul Kumar Varma & Neeru Jaiswal & Ayan Das & Mukesh Kumar & Nikhil V. Lele & Rojalin Tripathy & Saroj Maity & Mehul Pandya & Bimal Bhattacharya & Anup Kumar Mandal & M. Jishad & M. Seemanth & Arvind , 2023. "A pathway for multi-stage cyclone-induced hazard tracking—case study for Yaas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 1035-1067, May.
    4. Kieran Bhatia & Alexander Baker & Wenchang Yang & Gabriel Vecchi & Thomas Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Kevin Hodges & Keith Dixon & Benjamin Bronselaer & Carolyn Whitlock, 2022. "A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Sahil Sharma & Kyung-Ja Ha & Ryohei Yamaguchi & Keith B. Rodgers & Axel Timmermann & Eui-Seok Chung, 2023. "Future Indian Ocean warming patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Shinto Roose & R. S. Ajayamohan & Pallav Ray & Shang-Ping Xie & C. T. Sabeerali & M. Mohapatra & S. Taraphdar & K. Mohanakumar & M. Rajeevan, 2023. "Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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