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A pathway for multi-stage cyclone-induced hazard tracking—case study for Yaas

Author

Listed:
  • Atul Kumar Varma

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Neeru Jaiswal

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Ayan Das

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Mukesh Kumar

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Nikhil V. Lele

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Rojalin Tripathy

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Saroj Maity

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Mehul Pandya

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Bimal Bhattacharya

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Anup Kumar Mandal

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • M. Jishad

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • M. Seemanth

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Arvind Sahay

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Debojyoti Ganguly

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Suchandra Aich Bhowmick

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • R. K. Sarangi

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Neeraj Agarwal

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Mini Raman

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Rashmi Sharma

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Vibhuti Bhushan Jha

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Nimisha Singh

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Rohit Pradhan

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Amit K. Dubey

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Shard Chander

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • R. P. Singh

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Neerja Sharma

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Shivani Shah

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Ishmohan Bahuguna

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

  • Nilesh M. Desai

    (Indian Space Research Organisation)

Abstract

A Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Yaas’ developed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) on 23 May 2021 and crossed over the Odisha coast on 26 May with maximum sustained wind speed of 75 kts. Herein, a pathway has been developed and exemplified for ‘Yaas’ through three-stage cyclone-induced hazard tracking. Days before the cyclone formation, cyclone genesis potential parameter, sea surface temperature (SST) (> 30 °C) and tropical cyclone heat potential (anomaly of 40–80 kJ/cm2) indicated a strong possibility of cyclogenesis in the BoB. A Lagrangian advection model used for its track prediction with 24-h lead-time provided an accuracy of ~ 19 km and ~ 6 h in its landfall location and time. Further, intensity prediction was done using numerical weather prediction model. Geostationary satellites, INSAT-3D/3DR, were used to visualize cyclone structure. Passing of cyclone had its reverbarations in oceans, which are observed in SST drop of ~ 3 °C, salinity and density increase by ~ 1 psu and ~ 2 kg/m3, respectively. During the period, 23–26 May 2021, the Ekman suction velocity and chlorophyll concentration were found significantly high at ~ 5 m/day and > 0.5 mg/m3, respectively. Forecast of storm surge was found to be between 3.5 and 4 m at coastal locations. Significant wave height was found to be 5.5–9.2 m. The coastal inundation forecast for 24 May 2021 provided its quantitative maximum inland extent. Finally, loss of the crop, fishery and forest areas by strong winds and inundation/ingress of saline water associated with storm surge were examined using SAR and optical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Atul Kumar Varma & Neeru Jaiswal & Ayan Das & Mukesh Kumar & Nikhil V. Lele & Rojalin Tripathy & Saroj Maity & Mehul Pandya & Bimal Bhattacharya & Anup Kumar Mandal & M. Jishad & M. Seemanth & Arvind , 2023. "A pathway for multi-stage cyclone-induced hazard tracking—case study for Yaas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 1035-1067, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05893-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05893-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. I.-I. Lin & Gustavo Goni & John Knaff & Cristina Forbes & M. Ali, 2013. "Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1481-1500, April.
    2. Hiroyuki Murakami & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Seth Underwood, 2017. "Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 885-889, December.
    3. Anup Kumar Mandal & Ratheesh Ramakrishnan & Smita Pandey & A. D. Rao & Prashant Kumar, 2020. "An early warning system for inundation forecast due to a tropical cyclone along the east coast of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2277-2293, September.
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