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Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks

Author

Listed:
  • Sha Zhou

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • A. Park Williams

    (University of California)

  • Benjamin R. Lintner

    (The State University of New Jersey)

  • Kirsten L. Findell

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Trevor F. Keenan

    (University of California
    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Yao Zhang

    (Peking University)

  • Pierre Gentine

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications. However, the extent to which this seasonal paradigm holds over land remains unclear. Here we examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections. While the P–E seasonal cycle does broadly intensify over much of the land surface, ~20% of land area experiences a diminished seasonal cycle, mostly over subtropical regions and the Amazon. Using land–atmosphere coupling experiments, we demonstrate that 63% of the seasonality reduction is driven by seasonally varying soil moisture (SM) feedbacks on P–E. Declining SM reduces evapotranspiration and modulates circulation to enhance moisture convergence and increase P–E in the dry season but not in the wet season. Our results underscore the importance of SM–atmosphere feedbacks for seasonal water availability changes in a warmer climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Kirsten L. Findell & Trevor F. Keenan & Yao Zhang & Pierre Gentine, 2022. "Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33473-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33473-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Alexis M. Berg & Yao Zhang & Trevor F. Keenan & Benjamin I. Cook & Stefan Hagemann & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Pierre Gentine, 2021. "Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 38-44, January.
    2. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Alexis M. Berg & Yao Zhang & Trevor F. Keenan & Benjamin I. Cook & Stefan Hagemann & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Pierre Gentine, 2021. "Publisher Correction: Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 274-274, March.
    3. A. L. Burrell & J. P. Evans & M. G. De Kauwe, 2020. "Anthropogenic climate change has driven over 5 million km2 of drylands towards desertification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Kevin E. Trenberth & Aiguo Dai & Gerard van der Schrier & Philip D. Jones & Jonathan Barichivich & Keith R. Briffa & Justin Sheffield, 2014. "Global warming and changes in drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 17-22, January.
    5. Goutam Konapala & Ashok K. Mishra & Yoshihide Wada & Michael E. Mann, 2020. "Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liang Qiao & Zhiyan Zuo & Renhe Zhang & Shilong Piao & Dong Xiao & Kaiwen Zhang, 2023. "Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

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