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Carbon mitigation potential afforded by rooftop photovoltaic in China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhixin Zhang

    (Nanjing Normal University
    Nanjing University
    Nanjing Normal University)

  • Min Chen

    (Nanjing Normal University
    International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals
    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application
    Nanjing Normal University)

  • Teng Zhong

    (Nanjing Normal University
    Nanjing Normal University
    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application)

  • Rui Zhu

    (Institute of High Performance Computing (IHPC), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR))

  • Zhen Qian

    (Nanjing Normal University)

  • Fan Zhang

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Yue Yang

    (Nanjing Normal University)

  • Kai Zhang

    (Nanjing Normal University)

  • Paolo Santi

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Kaicun Wang

    (Peking University)

  • Yingxia Pu

    (Nanjing University
    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application
    Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology)

  • Lixin Tian

    (Jiangsu University
    Nanjing Normal University)

  • Guonian Lü

    (Nanjing Normal University
    Nanjing Normal University
    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application)

  • Jinyue Yan

    (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
    Mälardalen University)

Abstract

Rooftop photovoltaics (RPVs) are crucial in achieving energy transition and climate goals, especially in cities with high building density and substantial energy consumption. Estimating RPV carbon mitigation potential at the city level of an entire large country is challenging given difficulties in assessing rooftop area. Here, using multi-source heterogeneous geospatial data and machine learning regression, we identify a total of 65,962 km2 rooftop area in 2020 for 354 Chinese cities, which represents 4 billion tons of carbon mitigation under ideal assumptions. Considering urban land expansion and power mix transformation, the potential remains at 3-4 billion tons in 2030, when China plans to reach its carbon peak. However, most cities have exploited less than 1% of their potential. We provide analysis of geographical endowment to better support future practice. Our study provides critical insights for targeted RPV development in China and can serve as a foundation for similar work in other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhixin Zhang & Min Chen & Teng Zhong & Rui Zhu & Zhen Qian & Fan Zhang & Yue Yang & Kai Zhang & Paolo Santi & Kaicun Wang & Yingxia Pu & Lixin Tian & Guonian Lü & Jinyue Yan, 2023. "Carbon mitigation potential afforded by rooftop photovoltaic in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-38079-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38079-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Zhun Qu & Chong Jiang & Yixin Wang & Ran Wang & Ying Zhao & Suchang Yang, 2024. "China’s Photovoltaic Development and Its Spillover Effects on Carbon Footprint at Cross-Regional Scale: Insights from the Largest Photovoltaic Industry in Northwest Arid Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-24, November.
    3. Yuchen Guo & Ze Zhang, 2024. "Reducing carbon emissions through green renewal: insights from residential energy consumption in Chinese urban inventory districts from an evidence-based decision-making perspective," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Jiayu Bao & Xianglong Li & Tao Yu & Liangliang Jiang & Jialin Zhang & Fengjiao Song & Wenqiang Xu, 2024. "Are Regions Conducive to Photovoltaic Power Generation Demonstrating Significant Potential for Harnessing Solar Energy via Photovoltaic Systems?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    5. Feng, Ran & Wang, Kai & Xu, Xu & Yu, Zi-Tao & Lin, Qingyang, 2024. "Triple-layer optimization of distributed photovoltaic energy storage capacity for manufacturing enterprises considering carbon emissions and load management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    6. Li, Xiaochun & He, Ze & Xia, Siyou & Yang, Yu, 2024. "Greenness change associated with construction and operation of photovoltaic solar energy in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    7. Wang, Zhen & Yan, Haoben & Gao, Xue & Liang, Qiaomei & Mi, Zhifu & Liu, Lancui, 2024. "Have consumption-based CO2 emissions in developed countries peaked?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. Lv, Furong & Tang, Haiping, 2024. "Sustainable photovoltaic power generation spatial planning through ecosystem service valuation: A case study of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    9. Zhu, Rui & Lau, Wing Sze & You, Linlin & Yan, Jinyue & Ratti, Carlo & Chen, Min & Wong, Man Sing & Qin, Zheng, 2024. "Multi-sourced data modelling of spatially heterogenous life-cycle carbon mitigation from installed rooftop photovoltaics: A case study in Singapore," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).
    10. Zhang, Kai & Wang, Dajiang & Chen, Min & Zhu, Rui & Zhang, Fan & Zhong, Teng & Qian, Zhen & Wang, Yazhou & Li, Hengyue & Wang, Yijie & Lü, Guonian & Yan, Jinyue, 2024. "Power generation assessment of photovoltaic noise barriers across 52 major Chinese cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).

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