IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-35943-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England

Author

Listed:
  • Matt J. Keeling

    (University of Warwick
    Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

  • Samuel Moore

    (Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research
    Lancaster University)

  • Bridget S. Penman

    (University of Warwick)

  • Edward M. Hill

    (University of Warwick
    Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

Abstract

In late 2020, the JCVI (the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which provides advice to the Department of Health and Social Care, England) made two important recommendations for the initial roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine. The first was that vaccines should be targeted to older and vulnerable people, with the aim of maximally preventing disease rather than infection. The second was to increase the interval between first and second doses from 3 to 12 weeks. Here, we re-examine these recommendations through a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England. We show that targeting the most vulnerable had the biggest immediate impact (compared to targeting younger individuals who may be more responsible for transmission). The 12-week delay was also highly beneficial, estimated to have averted between 32-72 thousand hospital admissions and 4-9 thousand deaths over the first ten months of the campaign (December 2020–September 2021) depending on the assumed interaction between dose interval and efficacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Matt J. Keeling & Samuel Moore & Bridget S. Penman & Edward M. Hill, 2023. "The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-35943-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-35943-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-35943-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-35943-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edouard Mathieu & Hannah Ritchie & Esteban Ortiz-Ospina & Max Roser & Joe Hasell & Cameron Appel & Charlie Giattino & Lucas Rodés-Guirao, 2021. "A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 947-953, July.
    2. Matt J. Keeling & Louise Dyson & Michael J. Tildesley & Edward M. Hill & Samuel Moore, 2022. "Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolò Gozzi & Matteo Chinazzi & Natalie E. Dean & Ira M. Longini Jr & M. Elizabeth Halloran & Nicola Perra & Alessandro Vespignani, 2023. "Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. D. Sreeganga & Ajay Chandra & Arkalgud Ramaprasad, 2021. "Ontological Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Roll out Strategies: A Comparison of India and the United States of America," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Schenkel, Marina, 2024. "Health emergencies, science contrarianism and populism: A scoping review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    3. Michelle Kendall & Daphne Tsallis & Chris Wymant & Andrea Francia & Yakubu Balogun & Xavier Didelot & Luca Ferretti & Christophe Fraser, 2023. "Epidemiological impacts of the NHS COVID-19 app in England and Wales throughout its first year," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Ilias Chronopoulos & Katerina Chrysikou & George Kapetanios & James Mitchell & Aristeidis Raftapostolos, 2023. "Deep Neural Network Estimation in Panel Data Models," Working Papers 23-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Jo Daniels & Hannah Rettie, 2022. "The Mental Health Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Second Wave on Shielders and Their Family Members," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Emily Cameron-Blake & Helen Tatlow & Bernardo Andretti & Thomas Boby & Kaitlyn Green & Thomas Hale & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Annalena Pott & Adam Wade & Hao Zha, 2023. "A panel dataset of COVID-19 vaccination policies in 185 countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 1402-1413, August.
    7. John Gibson, 2023. "Jabbing the economy back to life?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(21), pages 2999-3005, December.
    8. Simon Munzert & Sebastian Ramirez-Ruiz & Başak Çalı & Lukas F. Stoetzer & Anita Gohdes & Will Lowe, 2022. "Prioritization preferences for COVID-19 vaccination are consistent across five countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce & Avila-Vales, Eric & Huang, Kuan-lin, 2022. "Modeling COVID-19 dynamic using a two-strain model with vaccination," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Santiago Justo Arevalo & Carmen Sofia Uribe Calampa & Cinthy Jimenez Silva & Mauro Quiñones Aguilar & Remco Bouckaert & Joao Renato Rebello Pinho, 2023. "Phylodynamic of SARS-CoV-2 during the second wave of COVID-19 in Peru," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Yang Ye & Qingpeng Zhang & Xuan Wei & Zhidong Cao & Hsiang-Yu Yuan & Daniel Dajun Zeng, 2022. "Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 207-216, February.
    12. Keser, Claudia & Rau, Holger A., 2022. "Policy incentives and determinants of citizens' COVID-19 vaccination motives," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 434, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    13. Caixia Wang & Huijie Li, 2023. "Variation in Global Policy Responses to COVID-19: A Bidirectional Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-13, February.
    14. The PLOS Medicine Editors, 2022. "Vaccine equity: A fundamental imperative in the fight against COVID-19," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(2), pages 1-4, February.
    15. Greyling, Talita & Rossouw, Stephanié, 2024. "Vaccination uptake, happiness and emotions: using a supervised machine learning approach," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1482, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara & Chiara Saracini, 2022. "Risk Perception Influence on Vaccination Program on COVID-19 in Chile: A Mathematical Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-12, February.
    17. Krueger, Rico & Daziano, Ricardo A., 2022. "Stated choice analysis of preferences for COVID-19 vaccines using the Choquet integral," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    18. Samuel P. C. Brand & Massimo Cavallaro & Fergus Cumming & Charlie Turner & Isaac Florence & Paula Blomquist & Joe Hilton & Laura M. Guzman-Rincon & Thomas House & D. James Nokes & Matt J. Keeling, 2023. "The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Scully, Ben & Mvundura, Wellington & Nyirenda, Tessa & Tambulu, Bukiwe & Zikalala, Usithandile, 2023. "Cars and clothes in South Africa's Covid experience: The contrasting fortunes of two manufacturing sectors in South Africa," IPE Working Papers 223/2023, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    20. Aldo Coelho Silva & Adriana Souza Amaral & Lucas Alves Facundo & Melissa Talita Wiprich & Leandro Rechenchosky & Wilson Rinaldi, 2022. "Two Years of COVID-19 Pandemic: How the Brazilian Serie A Championship Was Affected by Home Advantage, Performance and Disciplinary Aspects," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-11, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-35943-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.