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Epidemiological impacts of the NHS COVID-19 app in England and Wales throughout its first year

Author

Listed:
  • Michelle Kendall

    (University of Warwick)

  • Daphne Tsallis

    (Zühlke Engineering Ltd)

  • Chris Wymant

    (Old Road Campus, University of Oxford
    University of Oxford, Old Road Campus)

  • Andrea Francia

    (UK Health Security Agency, Nobel House)

  • Yakubu Balogun

    (UK Health Security Agency, Nobel House)

  • Xavier Didelot

    (University of Warwick
    University of Warwick)

  • Luca Ferretti

    (Old Road Campus, University of Oxford
    University of Oxford, Old Road Campus)

  • Christophe Fraser

    (Old Road Campus, University of Oxford
    University of Oxford, Old Road Campus
    University of Oxford)

Abstract

The NHS COVID-19 app was launched in England and Wales in September 2020, with a Bluetooth-based contact tracing functionality designed to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We show that user engagement and the app’s epidemiological impacts varied according to changing social and epidemic characteristics throughout the app’s first year. We describe the interaction and complementarity of manual and digital contact tracing approaches. Results of our statistical analyses of anonymised, aggregated app data include that app users who were recently notified were more likely to test positive than app users who were not recently notified, by a factor that varied considerably over time. We estimate that the app’s contact tracing function alone averted about 1 million cases (sensitivity analysis 450,000–1,400,000) during its first year, corresponding to 44,000 hospital cases (SA 20,000–60,000) and 9,600 deaths (SA 4600–13,000).

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle Kendall & Daphne Tsallis & Chris Wymant & Andrea Francia & Yakubu Balogun & Xavier Didelot & Luca Ferretti & Christophe Fraser, 2023. "Epidemiological impacts of the NHS COVID-19 app in England and Wales throughout its first year," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36495-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36495-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matt J. Keeling & Louise Dyson & Michael J. Tildesley & Edward M. Hill & Samuel Moore, 2022. "Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Chris Wymant & Luca Ferretti & Daphne Tsallis & Marcos Charalambides & Lucie Abeler-Dörner & David Bonsall & Robert Hinch & Michelle Kendall & Luke Milsom & Matthew Ayres & Chris Holmes & Mark Briers , 2021. "The epidemiological impact of the NHS COVID-19 app," Nature, Nature, vol. 594(7863), pages 408-412, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zengmiao Wang & Peng Yang & Ruixue Wang & Luca Ferretti & Lele Zhao & Shan Pei & Xiaoli Wang & Lei Jia & Daitao Zhang & Yonghong Liu & Ziyan Liu & Quanyi Wang & Christophe Fraser & Huaiyu Tian, 2024. "Estimating the contribution of setting-specific contacts to SARS-CoV-2 transmission using digital contact tracing data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Chambers, Tim & Anglemyer, Andrew & Chen, Andrew Tzer-Yeu & Baker, Michael G., 2024. "An evaluation of the COVID-19 self-service digital contact tracing system in New Zealand," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

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