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Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England

Author

Listed:
  • Matt J. Keeling

    (University of Warwick
    Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

  • Louise Dyson

    (University of Warwick
    Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

  • Michael J. Tildesley

    (University of Warwick
    Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

  • Edward M. Hill

    (University of Warwick
    Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

  • Samuel Moore

    (University of Warwick
    Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

Abstract

Control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic in England has relied on a combination of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Some of these NPIs are extremely costly (economically and socially), so it was important to relax these promptly without overwhelming already burdened health services. The eventual policy was a Roadmap of four relaxation steps throughout 2021, taking England from lock-down to the cessation of all restrictions on social interaction. In a series of six Roadmap documents generated throughout 2021, models assessed the potential risk of each relaxation step. Here we show that the model projections generated a reliable estimation of medium-term hospital admission trends, with the data points up to September 2021 generally lying within our 95% prediction intervals. The greatest uncertainties in the modelled scenarios came from vaccine efficacy estimates against novel variants, and from assumptions about human behaviour in the face of changing restrictions and risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Matt J. Keeling & Louise Dyson & Michael J. Tildesley & Edward M. Hill & Samuel Moore, 2022. "Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31991-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31991-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louise Dyson & Edward M. Hill & Sam Moore & Jacob Curran-Sebastian & Michael J. Tildesley & Katrina A. Lythgoe & Thomas House & Lorenzo Pellis & Matt J. Keeling, 2021. "Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Caroline Buckee & Abdisalan Noor & Lisa Sattenspiel, 2021. "Thinking clearly about social aspects of infectious disease transmission," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7866), pages 205-213, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matt J. Keeling & Samuel Moore & Bridget S. Penman & Edward M. Hill, 2023. "The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Michelle Kendall & Daphne Tsallis & Chris Wymant & Andrea Francia & Yakubu Balogun & Xavier Didelot & Luca Ferretti & Christophe Fraser, 2023. "Epidemiological impacts of the NHS COVID-19 app in England and Wales throughout its first year," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Samuel P. C. Brand & Massimo Cavallaro & Fergus Cumming & Charlie Turner & Isaac Florence & Paula Blomquist & Joe Hilton & Laura M. Guzman-Rincon & Thomas House & D. James Nokes & Matt J. Keeling, 2023. "The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Lloyd A. C. Chapman & Maite Aubry & Noémie Maset & Timothy W. Russell & Edward S. Knock & John A. Lees & Henri-Pierre Mallet & Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau & Adam J. Kucharski, 2023. "Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.

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