IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pntd00/0010101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions and their lag times on the COVID-19 pandemic: Comparison of eight countries

Author

Listed:
  • Hao Li
  • Luqi Wang
  • Mengxi Zhang
  • Yihan Lu
  • Weibing Wang

Abstract

Many countries implemented measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic, but the effects of these measures have varied greatly. We evaluated the effects of different policies, the prevalence of dominant variants (e.g., Delta), and vaccination on the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic in eight countries. We quantified the lag times of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We also tested whether these lag times were reasonable by analyzing changes in daily cases and the effective reproductive number (Rt)over time. Our results indicated that the response to vaccination in countries with continuous vaccination programs lagged by at least 40 days, and the lag time for a response to NPIs was at least 14 days. A rebound was most likely to occur during the 40 days after the first vaccine dose. We also found that the combination of school closure, workplace closure, restrictions on mass gatherings, and stay-at-home requirements were successful in containing the pandemic. Our results thus demonstrated that vaccination was effective, although some regions were adversely affected by new variants and low vaccination coverage. Importantly, relaxation of NPIs soon after implementation of a vaccination program may lead to a rebound.Author summary: In response to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, countries worldwide have implemented multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that restrict movement, such as school closure and stay-at-home requirements, and introduced large nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. However, there were variations in population compliance and vaccine coverage worldwide. The virus is continuously spreading and new genetic variants are emerging. In this context, we chose eight countries as being representative of the worldwide ranges of population density, variant spread, vaccination, population compliance to countermeasures, and effectiveness of implemented measures. Our study identified the most common effective countermeasures and estimated the lag times for a response to NPIs and for the onset of a vaccination effect. We found a rebound was most likely to occur during the 40 days after the first vaccine dose and both NPIs and vaccine coverage are indispensable in the current context of Delta variant high prevalence. We hope that the results of this study could provide some guidance for controlling the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Li & Luqi Wang & Mengxi Zhang & Yihan Lu & Weibing Wang, 2022. "Effects of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions and their lag times on the COVID-19 pandemic: Comparison of eight countries," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0010101
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010101
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010101&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010101?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edouard Mathieu & Hannah Ritchie & Esteban Ortiz-Ospina & Max Roser & Joe Hasell & Cameron Appel & Charlie Giattino & Lucas Rodés-Guirao, 2021. "A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 947-953, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hwang, Eunju, 2022. "Prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases by HAR models with growth rates and vaccination rates in top eight affected countries: Bootstrap improvement," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Wood, Reed M. & Juanchich, Marie & Ramirez, Mark & Zhang, Shenghao, 2023. "Promoting COVID-19 vaccine confidence through public responses to misinformation: The joint influence of message source and message content," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    3. S. D. Sreeganga & Ajay Chandra & Arkalgud Ramaprasad, 2021. "Ontological Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Roll out Strategies: A Comparison of India and the United States of America," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Radosław Trepanowski & Dariusz Drążkowski, 2024. "The Vaccine-Education Paradox in a Cross-Country Analysis: Education Predicts Higher and Lower Vaccination Rates," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, May.
    5. Schenkel, Marina, 2024. "Health emergencies, science contrarianism and populism: A scoping review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    6. Quan-Hoang Vuong & Tam-Tri Le & Viet-Phuong La & Huyen Thanh Thanh Nguyen & Manh-Toan Ho & Quy Khuc & Minh-Hoang Nguyen, 2022. "Covid-19 vaccines production and societal immunization under the serendipity-mindsponge-3D knowledge management theory and conceptual framework," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Tianzhen Hu & Li Li & Chuanxue Lin & Zikun Yang & Cheng Chow & Zhipeng Lu & Chen You, 2022. "An Analysis of the Willingness to the COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots among Urban Employees: Evidence from a Megacity H in Eastern China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Carlotta Amantea & Maria Francesca Rossi & Paolo Emilio Santoro & Flavia Beccia & Maria Rosaria Gualano & Ivan Borrelli & Joana Pinto da Costa & Alessandra Daniele & Antonio Tumminello & Stefania Bocc, 2022. "Medical Liability of the Vaccinating Doctor: Comparing Policies in European Union Countries during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-11, June.
    9. Christian Gillitzer & Nalini Prasad, 2023. "The Effect Of School Closures On Standardized Test Scores: Evidence From A Zero-Covid Environment," Working Papers 2023-09, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    10. Kun Sun & Tian-Fang Zhao & Xiao-Kun Wu & Kai-Sheng Lai & Wei-Neng Chen & Jin-Sheng Zhang, 2022. "Incorporating Fuzzy Cognitive Inference for Vaccine Hesitancy Measuring," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    11. Ilias Chronopoulos & Katerina Chrysikou & George Kapetanios & James Mitchell & Aristeidis Raftapostolos, 2023. "Deep Neural Network Estimation in Panel Data Models," Working Papers 23-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Jo Daniels & Hannah Rettie, 2022. "The Mental Health Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Second Wave on Shielders and Their Family Members," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-17, June.
    13. Antoni Wilinski & Irena Bach-Dabrowska, 2022. "COVID-19: Changes in the Ranking of Polish Regions According to the Criterion Taking into Account both the Reluctance to Vaccinate and the Number of Deaths," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 423-432.
    14. Kolawole Ogundari, 2022. "The COVID-19 vaccine rollout and labor market recovery in the U.S: a note," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-13, July.
    15. World Bank, 2024. "Unlocking the Power of Healthy Longevity," World Bank Publications - Reports 42142, The World Bank Group.
    16. Solórzano Diego, 2023. "Grab a Bite? Prices in the food away from home industry during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 2023-18, Banco de México.
    17. Salvatore F. Pileggi, 2022. "Holistic Resilience Index: measuring the expected country resilience to pandemic," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4107-4127, December.
    18. Emily Cameron-Blake & Helen Tatlow & Bernardo Andretti & Thomas Boby & Kaitlyn Green & Thomas Hale & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Annalena Pott & Adam Wade & Hao Zha, 2023. "A panel dataset of COVID-19 vaccination policies in 185 countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 1402-1413, August.
    19. John Gibson, 2023. "Jabbing the economy back to life?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(21), pages 2999-3005, December.
    20. Ahumada, M. & Ledesma-Araujo, A. & Gordillo, L. & Marín, J.F., 2023. "Mutation and SARS-CoV-2 strain competition under vaccination in a modified SIR model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0010101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosntds (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.