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Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Ye

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Qingpeng Zhang

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Xuan Wei

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Zhidong Cao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Hsiang-Yu Yuan

    (City University of Hong Kong
    City University of Hong Kong)

  • Daniel Dajun Zeng

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Despite broad agreement on the negative consequences of vaccine inequity, the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is imbalanced. Access to vaccines in high-income countries (HICs) is far greater than in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As a result, there continue to be high rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths in LMICs. In addition, recent mutant COVID-19 outbreaks may counteract advances in epidemic control and economic recovery in HICs. To explore the consequences of vaccine (in)equity in the face of evolving COVID-19 strains, we examine vaccine allocation strategies using a multistrain metapopulation model. Our results show that vaccine inequity provides only limited and short-term benefits to HICs. Sharper disparities in vaccine allocation between HICs and LMICs lead to earlier and larger outbreaks of new waves. Equitable vaccine allocation strategies, in contrast, substantially curb the spread of new strains. For HICs, making immediate and generous vaccine donations to LMICs is a practical pathway to protect everyone.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Ye & Qingpeng Zhang & Xuan Wei & Zhidong Cao & Hsiang-Yu Yuan & Daniel Dajun Zeng, 2022. "Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 207-216, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:6:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1038_s41562-022-01289-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-022-01289-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cem Çakmaklı & Selva Demiralp & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Sevcan Yeşiltaş & Muhammed A. Yıldırım, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," NBER Working Papers 28395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Edouard Mathieu & Hannah Ritchie & Esteban Ortiz-Ospina & Max Roser & Joe Hasell & Cameron Appel & Charlie Giattino & Lucas Rodés-Guirao, 2021. "A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 947-953, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erdoğan, Güneş & Yücel, Eda & Kiavash, Parinaz & Salman, F. Sibel, 2024. "Fair and effective vaccine allocation during a pandemic," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Michele Tizzoni & Elaine O. Nsoesie & Laetitia Gauvin & Márton Karsai & Nicola Perra & Shweta Bansal, 2022. "Addressing the socioeconomic divide in computational modeling for infectious diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    3. Otten, Kasper & Buskens, Vincent & Przepiorka, Wojtek & Cherki, Boaz & Israel, Salomon, 2024. "Cooperation, punishment, and group change in multilevel public goods experiments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    4. Chuanlin Ning & Han Wang & Jing Wu & Qinwei Chen & Huacheng Pei & Hao Gao, 2022. "The COVID-19 Vaccination and Vaccine Inequity Worldwide: An Empirical Study Based on Global Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-13, April.
    5. Sahabi Kabir Sulaiman & Muhammad Sale Musa & Fatimah Isma’il Tsiga-Ahmed & Abdulwahab Kabir Sulaiman & Abdulaziz Tijjani Bako, 2024. "A systematic review and meta-analysis of the global prevalence and determinants of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake in people living with HIV," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 100-114, January.
    6. Muckstadt, John A. & Klein, Michael G. & Jackson, Peter L. & Gougelet, Robert M. & Hupert, Nathaniel, 2023. "Efficient and effective large-scale vaccine distribution," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    7. Dimitris Zavras, 2022. "Access to the COVID-19 Vaccine," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-4, September.
    8. Rughinis, Cosima & Vulpe, Simona Nicoleta & Flaherty, Michael G. & Vasile, Sorina, 2022. "Vaccination, life expectancy, and trust: Patterns of COVID-19 vaccination rates around the world," MPRA Paper 111981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Anderson F. Brito & Elizaveta Semenova & Gytis Dudas & Gabriel W. Hassler & Chaney C. Kalinich & Moritz U. G. Kraemer & Joses Ho & Houriiyah Tegally & George Githinji & Charles N. Agoti & Lucy E. Matk, 2022. "Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Nicolò Gozzi & Matteo Chinazzi & Natalie E. Dean & Ira M. Longini Jr & M. Elizabeth Halloran & Nicola Perra & Alessandro Vespignani, 2023. "Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

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