IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v9y2019i7d10.1038_s41558-019-0507-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cloud microphysics and circulation anomalies control differences in future Greenland melt

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Hofer

    (University of Bristol
    University of Liège)

  • Andrew J. Tedstone

    (University of Bristol)

  • Xavier Fettweis

    (University of Liège)

  • Jonathan L. Bamber

    (University of Bristol)

Abstract

Recently, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has become the main source of barystatic sea-level rise1,2. The increase in the GrIS melt is linked to anticyclonic circulation anomalies, a reduction in cloud cover and enhanced warm-air advection3–7. The Climate Model Intercomparison Project fifth phase (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) do not capture recent circulation dynamics; therefore, regional climate models (RCMs) driven by GCMs still show significant uncertainties in future GrIS sea-level contribution, even within one emission scenario5,8–10. Here, we use the RCM Modèle Atmosphèrique Règional to show that the modelled cloud water phase is the main source of disagreement among future GrIS melt projections. We show that, in the current climate, anticyclonic circulation results in more melting than under a neutral-circulation regime. However, we find that the GrIS longwave cloud radiative effect is extremely sensitive to the modelled cloud liquid-water path, which explains melt anomalies of +378 Gt yr–1 (+1.04 mm yr–1 global sea level equivalent) in a +2 °C-warmer climate with a neutral-circulation regime (equivalent to 21% more melt than under anticyclonic circulation). The discrepancies between modelled cloud properties within a high-emission scenario introduce larger uncertainties in projected melt volumes than the difference in melt between low- and high-emission scenarios11.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Hofer & Andrew J. Tedstone & Xavier Fettweis & Jonathan L. Bamber, 2019. "Cloud microphysics and circulation anomalies control differences in future Greenland melt," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 523-528, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0507-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0507-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0507-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-019-0507-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dániel Topál & Qinghua Ding & Thomas J. Ballinger & Edward Hanna & Xavier Fettweis & Zhe Li & Ildikó Pieczka, 2022. "Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. J. C. Ryan & L. C. Smith & S. W. Cooley & B. Pearson & N. Wever & E. Keenan & J. T. M. Lenaerts, 2022. "Decreasing surface albedo signifies a growing importance of clouds for Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater production," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0507-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.