IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v12y2021i1d10.1038_s41467-021-26229-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Increased variability in Greenland Ice Sheet runoff from satellite observations

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Slater

    (Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds)

  • Andrew Shepherd

    (Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds)

  • Malcolm McMillan

    (Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University)

  • Amber Leeson

    (Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University)

  • Lin Gilbert

    (University College London)

  • Alan Muir

    (University College London
    University College London)

  • Peter Kuipers Munneke

    (Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University)

  • Brice Noël

    (Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University)

  • Xavier Fettweis

    (SPHERES Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Liège)

  • Michiel Broeke

    (Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University)

  • Kate Briggs

    (Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds)

Abstract

Runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased over recent decades affecting global sea level, regional ocean circulation, and coastal marine ecosystems, and it now accounts for most of the contemporary mass imbalance. Estimates of runoff are typically derived from regional climate models because satellite records have been limited to assessments of melting extent. Here, we use CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry to produce direct measurements of Greenland’s runoff variability, based on seasonal changes in the ice sheet’s surface elevation. Between 2011 and 2020, Greenland’s ablation zone thinned on average by 1.4 ± 0.4 m each summer and thickened by 0.9 ± 0.4 m each winter. By adjusting for the steady-state divergence of ice, we estimate that runoff was 357 ± 58 Gt/yr on average – in close agreement with regional climate model simulations (root mean square difference of 47 to 60 Gt/yr). As well as being 21 % higher between 2011 and 2020 than over the preceding three decades, runoff is now also 60 % more variable from year-to-year as a consequence of large-scale fluctuations in atmospheric circulation. Because this variability is not captured in global climate model simulations, our satellite record of runoff should help to refine them and improve confidence in their projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Slater & Andrew Shepherd & Malcolm McMillan & Amber Leeson & Lin Gilbert & Alan Muir & Peter Kuipers Munneke & Brice Noël & Xavier Fettweis & Michiel Broeke & Kate Briggs, 2021. "Increased variability in Greenland Ice Sheet runoff from satellite observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26229-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26229-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26229-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-021-26229-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Harper & N. Humphrey & W. T. Pfeffer & J. Brown & X. Fettweis, 2012. "Greenland ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise buffered by meltwater storage in firn," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7423), pages 240-243, November.
    2. Nicholas R. Golledge & Elizabeth D. Keller & Natalya Gomez & Kaitlin A. Naughten & Jorge Bernales & Luke D. Trusel & Tamsin L. Edwards, 2019. "Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7742), pages 65-72, February.
    3. Hamish D. Pritchard & Robert J. Arthern & David G. Vaughan & Laura A. Edwards, 2009. "Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7266), pages 971-975, October.
    4. Johan J. Mohr & Niels Reeh & Søren N. Madsen, 1998. "Three-dimensional glacial flow and surface elevation measured with radar interferometry," Nature, Nature, vol. 391(6664), pages 273-276, January.
    5. Thomas Slater & Anna E. Hogg & Ruth Mottram, 2020. "Ice-sheet losses track high-end sea-level rise projections," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 879-881, October.
    6. A. A. Leeson & A. Shepherd & K. Briggs & I. Howat & X. Fettweis & M. Morlighem & E. Rignot, 2015. "Supraglacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet advance inland under warming climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 51-55, January.
    7. Stefan Rahmstorf & Jason E. Box & Georg Feulner & Michael E. Mann & Alexander Robinson & Scott Rutherford & Erik J. Schaffernicht, 2015. "Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 475-480, May.
    8. J. S. Bowling & S. J. Livingstone & A. J. Sole & W. Chu, 2019. "Distribution and dynamics of Greenland subglacial lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. M. MacFerrin & H. Machguth & D. van As & C. Charalampidis & C. M. Stevens & A. Heilig & B. Vandecrux & P. L. Langen & R. Mottram & X. Fettweis & M. R. van den Broeke & W. T. Pfeffer & M. S. Moussavi &, 2019. "Rapid expansion of Greenland’s low-permeability ice slabs," Nature, Nature, vol. 573(7774), pages 403-407, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dániel Topál & Qinghua Ding & Thomas J. Ballinger & Edward Hanna & Xavier Fettweis & Zhe Li & Ildikó Pieczka, 2022. "Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Hiroshi Sumata & Laura Steur & Sebastian Gerland & Dmitry V. Divine & Olga Pavlova, 2022. "Unprecedented decline of Arctic sea ice outflow in 2018," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Jonathon R. Preece & Thomas L. Mote & Judah Cohen & Lori J. Wachowicz & John A. Knox & Marco Tedesco & Gabriel J. Kooperman, 2023. "Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Camille Hayatte Akhoudas & Jean-Baptiste Sallée & Gilles Reverdin & F. Alexander Haumann & Etienne Pauthenet & Christopher C. Chapman & Félix Margirier & Claire Lo Monaco & Nicolas Metzl & Julie Meill, 2023. "Isotopic evidence for an intensified hydrological cycle in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Dmitry Orlov & Marija Menshakova & Tomas Thierfelder & Yulia Zaika & Sepp Böhme & Birgitta Evengard & Natalia Pshenichnaya, 2020. "Healthy Ecosystems Are a Prerequisite for Human Health—A Call for Action in the Era of Climate Change with a Focus on Russia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-11, November.
    6. Maureen McHenry & Paul Dunlop, 2016. "The subglacial imprint of the last Newfoundland Ice Sheet, Canada," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 462-483, May.
    7. James R. Jordan & B. W. J. Miles & G. H. Gudmundsson & S. S. R. Jamieson & A. Jenkins & C. R. Stokes, 2023. "Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Carlo Grillenzoni & Elisa Carraro, 2021. "Sequential tests of causality between environmental time series: With application to the global warming theory," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), February.
    9. Muna Hindiyeh & Aiman Albatayneh & Rashed Altarawneh & Mustafa Jaradat & Murad Al-Omary & Qasem Abdelal & Tarek Tayara & Osama Khalil & Adel Juaidi & Ramez Abdallah & Partick Dutournié & Mejdi Jeguiri, 2021. "Sea Level Rise Mitigation by Global Sea Water Desalination Using Renewable-Energy-Powered Plants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-21, August.
    10. Chen Cheng & Adrian Jenkins & Paul R. Holland & Zhaomin Wang & Jihai Dong & Chengyan Liu, 2024. "Ice shelf basal channel shape determines channelized ice-ocean interactions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Kyle S. Mattingly & Jenny V. Turton & Jonathan D. Wille & Brice Noël & Xavier Fettweis & Åsa K. Rennermalm & Thomas L. Mote, 2023. "Increasing extreme melt in northeast Greenland linked to foehn winds and atmospheric rivers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Henning Åkesson & Mathieu Morlighem & Johan Nilsson & Christian Stranne & Martin Jakobsson, 2022. "Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    13. Chenyu Zhu & Zhengyu Liu & Shaoqing Zhang & Lixin Wu, 2023. "Likely accelerated weakening of Atlantic overturning circulation emerges in optimal salinity fingerprint," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. Roman Olson & Soon-Il An & Yanan Fan & Jason P Evans, 2019. "Accounting for skill in trend, variability, and autocorrelation facilitates better multi-model projections: Application to the AMOC and temperature time series," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, April.
    15. Lujendra Ojha & Bryce Troncone & Jacob Buffo & Baptiste Journaux & George McDonald, 2022. "Liquid water on cold exo-Earths via basal melting of ice sheets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Michael E. Weber & Nicholas R. Golledge & Chris J. Fogwill & Chris S. M. Turney & Zoë A. Thomas, 2021. "Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Benjamin J. Davison & Anna E. Hogg & Richard Rigby & Sanne Veldhuijsen & Jan Melchior Wessem & Michiel R. Broeke & Paul R. Holland & Heather L. Selley & Pierre Dutrieux, 2023. "Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Michela Biasutti & Adam Sobel & Suzana Camargo & Timothy Creyts, 2012. "Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 819-845, June.
    19. Christy M. Foran & Kelsie M. Baker & Michael J. Narcisi & Igor Linkov, 2015. "Susceptibility assessment of urban tree species in Cambridge, MA, from future climatic extremes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 389-400, September.
    20. Caroline Katsman & A. Sterl & J. Beersma & H. Brink & J. Church & W. Hazeleger & R. Kopp & D. Kroon & J. Kwadijk & R. Lammersen & J. Lowe & M. Oppenheimer & H. Plag & J. Ridley & H. Storch & D. Vaugha, 2011. "Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 617-645, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26229-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.