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Modeling of waning immunity after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and influencing factors

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Pérez-Alós

    (Section 7631, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Jose Juan Almagro Armenteros

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Johannes Roth Madsen

    (Section 7631, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Cecilie Bo Hansen

    (Section 7631, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Ida Jarlhelt

    (Section 7631, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Sebastian Rask Hamm

    (Section 8632, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Line Dam Heftdal

    (Section 8632, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen
    Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Mia Marie Pries-Heje

    (Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Dina Leth Møller

    (Section 8632, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Kamille Fogh

    (University of Copenhagen
    University of Copenhagen)

  • Rasmus Bo Hasselbalch

    (University of Copenhagen
    University of Copenhagen)

  • Anne Rosbjerg

    (Section 7631, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Søren Brunak

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Erik Sørensen

    (Section 2034, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Margit Anita Hørup Larsen

    (Section 2034, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Sisse Rye Ostrowski

    (Section 2034, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen
    University of Copenhagen)

  • Ruth Frikke-Schmidt

    (University of Copenhagen
    Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Rafael Bayarri-Olmos

    (Section 7631, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Linda Maria Hilsted

    (Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen)

  • Kasper Karmark Iversen

    (University of Copenhagen
    University of Copenhagen
    University of Copenhagen)

  • Henning Bundgaard

    (Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen
    University of Copenhagen)

  • Susanne Dam Nielsen

    (Section 8632, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen
    University of Copenhagen)

  • Peter Garred

    (Section 7631, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen
    University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are crucial in controlling COVID-19, but knowledge of which factors determine waning immunity is limited. We examined antibody levels and T-cell gamma-interferon release after two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine or a combination of ChAdOx1-nCoV19 and BNT162b2 vaccines for up to 230 days after the first dose. Generalized mixed models with and without natural cubic splines were used to determine immunity over time. Antibody responses were influenced by natural infection, sex, and age. IgA only became significant in naturally infected. A one-year IgG projection suggested an initial two-phase response in those given the second dose delayed (ChAdOx1/BNT162b2) followed by a more rapid decrease of antibody levels. T-cell responses correlated significantly with IgG antibody responses. Our results indicate that IgG levels will drop at different rates depending on prior infection, age, sex, T-cell response, and the interval between vaccine injections. Only natural infection mounted a significant and lasting IgA response.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Pérez-Alós & Jose Juan Almagro Armenteros & Johannes Roth Madsen & Cecilie Bo Hansen & Ida Jarlhelt & Sebastian Rask Hamm & Line Dam Heftdal & Mia Marie Pries-Heje & Dina Leth Møller & Kamille F, 2022. "Modeling of waning immunity after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and influencing factors," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29225-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29225-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jackson S. Turner & Jane A. O’Halloran & Elizaveta Kalaidina & Wooseob Kim & Aaron J. Schmitz & Julian Q. Zhou & Tingting Lei & Mahima Thapa & Rita E. Chen & James Brett Case & Fatima Amanat & Adriana, 2021. "SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines induce persistent human germinal centre responses," Nature, Nature, vol. 596(7870), pages 109-113, August.
    2. Bruno Pozzetto & Vincent Legros & Sophia Djebali & Véronique Barateau & Nicolas Guibert & Marine Villard & Loïc Peyrot & Omran Allatif & Jean-Baptiste Fassier & Amélie Massardier-Pilonchéry & Karen Br, 2021. "Immunogenicity and efficacy of heterologous ChAdOx1–BNT162b2 vaccination," Nature, Nature, vol. 600(7890), pages 701-706, December.
    3. Alice Cho & Frauke Muecksch & Dennis Schaefer-Babajew & Zijun Wang & Shlomo Finkin & Christian Gaebler & Victor Ramos & Melissa Cipolla & Pilar Mendoza & Marianna Agudelo & Eva Bednarski & Justin DaSi, 2021. "Anti-SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain antibody evolution after mRNA vaccination," Nature, Nature, vol. 600(7889), pages 517-522, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Pateras & Preetam Ghosh, 2022. "A Computational Framework for Exploring SARS-CoV-2 Pharmacodynamic Dose and Timing Regimes," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(20), pages 1-12, October.

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