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Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Rong Tang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Jing Zhao

    (Nanjing University
    Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning)

  • Yifan Liu

    (Nanjing University)

  • Xin Huang

    (Nanjing University
    Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Jiangsu Province)

  • Yanxu Zhang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Derong Zhou

    (Nanjing University
    Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Jiangsu Province)

  • Aijun Ding

    (Nanjing University
    Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Jiangsu Province
    Nanjing University)

  • Chris P. Nielsen

    (Harvard University)

  • Haikun Wang

    (Nanjing University
    Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Jiangsu Province
    Nanjing University)

Abstract

Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030. However, the social and economic impacts of such an early carbon peak have rarely been assessed. Here we focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon mitigation pathways, considering both possible socio-economic futures and varying ambitions of climate policies. We find that an early peak before 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C target could avoid ~118,000 and ~614,000 PM2.5 attributable deaths under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1, in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Under the 2 °C target, carbon mitigation costs could be more than offset by health co-benefits in 2050, bringing a net benefit of $393–$3,017 billion (in 2017 USD value). This study not only provides insight into potential health benefits of an early peak in China, but also suggests that similar benefits may result from more ambitious climate targets in other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Rong Tang & Jing Zhao & Yifan Liu & Xin Huang & Yanxu Zhang & Derong Zhou & Aijun Ding & Chris P. Nielsen & Haikun Wang, 2022. "Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28672-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28672-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Kiehbadroudinezhad, Mohammadali & Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, Homa & Pan, Junting & Peng, Wanxi & Wang, Yajing & Aghbashlo, Mortaza & Tabatabaei, Meisam, 2023. "The potential of aquatic weed as a resource for sustainable bioenergy sources and bioproducts production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    5. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Pradhan, Basanta K. & Dong, Kangyin & Yu, Yan-Yan & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2024. "An economy-wide impacts of multiple mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Qiao, Renlu & Liu, Xiaochang & Gao, Shuo & Liang, Diling & GesangYangji, Gesang & Xia, Li & Zhou, Shiqi & Ao, Xiang & Jiang, Qingrui & Wu, Zhiqiang, 2024. "Industrialization, urbanization, and innovation: Nonlinear drivers of carbon emissions in Chinese cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    7. Wu, Junnian & Li, Xue & Jin, Rong, 2022. "The response of the industrial system to the interrelationship approaching to carbon neutrality of carbon sources and sinks from carbon metabolism: Coal chemical case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    8. Liu, Qingchen & Li, Hongchang & Shang, Wen-long & Wang, Kun, 2022. "Spatio-temporal distribution of Chinese cities’ air quality and the impact of high-speed rail," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Lu, Shilei & Lin, Quanyi & Xu, Bowen & Yue, Lu & Feng, Wei, 2023. "Thermodynamic performance of cascaded latent heat storage systems for building heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    10. Wang, Yihan & Wen, Zongguo & Lv, Xiaojun & Zhu, Junming, 2023. "The regional discrepancies in the contribution of China’s thermal power plants toward the carbon peaking target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).

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