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Plant conversions and abatement technologies cannot prevent stranding of power plant assets in 2 °C scenarios

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  • Yangsiyu Lu

    (Boston University)

  • Francois Cohen

    (Department of Economics, Chair of Energy Sustainability and Barcelona Institute of Economics, University of Barcelona, Carrer de John Maynard Keynes, 1, 11)

  • Stephen M. Smith

    (University of Oxford)

  • Alexander Pfeiffer

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Continued fossil fuel development puts existing assets at risk of exceeding the capacity compatible with limiting global warming below 2 °C. However, it has been argued that plant conversions and new abatement technologies may allow for a smoother transition. We quantify the impact of future technology availability on the need for fossil fuel power plants to be stranded, i.e. decommissioned or underused. Even with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and bioenergy widely deployed in the future, a total of 267 PWh electricity generation (ten times global electricity production in 2018) may still be stranded. Coal-to-gas conversions could prevent 10–30 PWh of stranded generation. CCS retrofits, combined with biomass co-firing, could prevent 33–68 PWh. In contrast, lack of deployment of CCS or bioenergy could increase stranding by 69 or 45 percent respectively. Stranding risks remain under optimistic technology assumptions and even more so if CCS and bioenergy are not deployed at scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Yangsiyu Lu & Francois Cohen & Stephen M. Smith & Alexander Pfeiffer, 2022. "Plant conversions and abatement technologies cannot prevent stranding of power plant assets in 2 °C scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28458-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28458-7
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    Cited by:

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    2. Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid, 2024. "Emission regulation: Prices, quantities and hybrids with endogenous technology choice," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Mr. Patrick Bolton & Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis, 2022. "The Great Carbon Arbitrage," IMF Working Papers 2022/107, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Anton Pichler, 2024. "Transition dynamics of electricity asset-owning firms," Papers 2412.11597, arXiv.org.
    5. Fu, Yue & Wang, Liyuan & Liu, Ming & Wang, Jinshi & Yan, Junjie, 2023. "Performance analysis of coal-fired power plants integrated with carbon capture system under load-cycling operation conditions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    6. Ken Oshiro & Shinichiro Fujimori, 2024. "Limited impact of hydrogen co-firing on prolonging fossil-based power generation under low emissions scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Camille Macaire & Fabio Grieco & Ulrich Volz & Alain Naef, 2024. "High Voltage: Financing the Path to Zero Coal," Working papers 960, Banque de France.

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