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Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

Author

Listed:
  • Kriegler, Elmar
  • Petermann, Nils
  • Krey, Volker
  • Schwanitz, Valeria Jana
  • Luderer, Gunnar
  • Ashina, Shuichi
  • Bosetti, Valentina
  • Eom, Jiyong
  • Kitous, Alban
  • Méjean, Aurélie
  • Paroussos, Leonidas
  • Sano, Fuminori
  • Turton, Hal
  • Wilson, Charlie
  • Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract

Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

Suggested Citation

  • Kriegler, Elmar & Petermann, Nils & Krey, Volker & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Luderer, Gunnar & Ashina, Shuichi & Bosetti, Valentina & Eom, Jiyong & Kitous, Alban & Méjean, Aurélie & Paroussos, Leonida, 2015. "Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 45-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:90:y:2015:i:pa:p:45-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020
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