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New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected

Author

Listed:
  • Michelle R. McCrystall

    (University of Manitoba)

  • Julienne Stroeve

    (University of Manitoba
    University College London
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Mark Serreze

    (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Bruce C. Forbes

    (University of Lapland)

  • James A. Screen

    (University of Exeter)

Abstract

As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet, evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased evaporation from expanding open water areas and more precipitation. The latest projections from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) point to more rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice loss by the year 2100 than in previous projections, and consequently, larger and faster changes in the hydrological cycle. Arctic precipitation (rainfall) increases more rapidly in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 due to greater global warming and poleward moisture transport, greater Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss and increased sensitivity of precipitation to Arctic warming. The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle R. McCrystall & Julienne Stroeve & Mark Serreze & Bruce C. Forbes & James A. Screen, 2021. "New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27031-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y
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    2. Jacqueline Oehri & Gabriela Schaepman-Strub & Jin-Soo Kim & Raleigh Grysko & Heather Kropp & Inge Grünberg & Vitalii Zemlianskii & Oliver Sonnentag & Eugénie S. Euskirchen & Merin Reji Chacko & Giovan, 2022. "Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Chinn, Sarah M. & Liston, Glen E. & Wilson, Ryan R., 2023. "Assessing past and future climatic influences on the availability of polar bear maternal denning habitat on Wrangel Island," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).
    4. Zhibiao Wang & Qinghua Ding & Renguang Wu & Thomas J. Ballinger & Bin Guan & Deniz Bozkurt & Deanna Nash & Ian Baxter & Dániel Topál & Zhe Li & Gang Huang & Wen Chen & Shangfeng Chen & Xi Cao & Zhang , 2024. "Role of atmospheric rivers in shaping long term Arctic moisture variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Shawn M. Chartrand & A. Mark Jellinek & Antero Kukko & Anna Grau Galofre & Gordon R. Osinski & Shannon Hibbard, 2023. "High Arctic channel incision modulated by climate change and the emergence of polygonal ground," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. K. M. Walter Anthony & P. Anthony & N. Hasson & C. Edgar & O. Sivan & E. Eliani-Russak & O. Bergman & B. J. Minsley & S. R. James & N. J. Pastick & A. Kholodov & S. Zimov & E. Euskirchen & M. S. Bret-, 2024. "Upland Yedoma taliks are an unpredicted source of atmospheric methane," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.

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