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The Future Snow Potential and Snowmelt Runoff of Mesopotamian Water Tower

Author

Listed:
  • Aynur Şensoy

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Eskisehir Technical University, Eskişehir 26555, Türkiye)

  • Gökçen Uysal

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Eskisehir Technical University, Eskişehir 26555, Türkiye)

  • Y. Oğulcan Doğan

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Eskisehir Technical University, Eskişehir 26555, Türkiye)

  • H. Soykan Civelek

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Eskisehir Technical University, Eskişehir 26555, Türkiye)

Abstract

Mountainous basins are frequently called “natural water towers” because they supply essential water to downstream regions for irrigation, industrial–municipal use, and hydropower generation. The possible implications of climate change on water supplies have gained prominence in recent years, particularly in snow-dominated mountainous basins. The Euphrates River, a snow-fed transboundary river that originates from the Eastern part of Türkiye with several large dam reservoirs downstream, was chosen within this scope. The study reveals the impact of climate change on two snow-dominated headwaters, namely Karasu and Murat, which have a basin area of 41,109 km 2 . The impact of climate change is assessed across runoff regimes and snow dynamics for future periods (2024–2099). Global Climate Model (GCM) data sets (CNRM-CM5, IPSL-CM5A, EC-EARTH, MPI-ESM-LR, NorESM1-M, HadGEM2-ES) were downscaled by Regional Circulation Models (RCMs), provided from CMIP5 EURO-CORDEX domain for climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Future projections of runoff and snow variables are predicted by two conceptual hydrological models, HBV and HEC-HMS. The results indicate a dramatic shrink in snow cover extents (>65%) and snow duration (25%), a decrease in snow water equivalent (>50%), and a timely shift (up to a month) in peak runoff through early spring in the runoff hydrograph for the last future period (2075–2099). The overall assessment shows that operations of downstream water systems should be reconsidered for future changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Aynur Şensoy & Gökçen Uysal & Y. Oğulcan Doğan & H. Soykan Civelek, 2023. "The Future Snow Potential and Snowmelt Runoff of Mesopotamian Water Tower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:8:p:6646-:d:1123443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aysegül Kibaroglu & Tugba Maden, 2014. "An analysis of the causes of water crisis in the Euphrates-Tigris river basin," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 347-353, December.
    2. Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Martin Scherer & Moetasim Ashfaq, 2013. "Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 379-384, April.
    3. W. R. Berghuijs & R. A. Woods & M. Hrachowitz, 2014. "A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 583-586, July.
    4. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
    5. Deniz Bozkurt & Maisa Rojas & Juan Pablo Boisier & Jonás Valdivieso, 2018. "Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 131-147, October.
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