IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v12y2021i1d10.1038_s41467-021-26232-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Author

Listed:
  • Yufei Zou

    (Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
    Our Kettle, Inc.)

  • Philip J. Rasch

    (Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Hailong Wang

    (Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Zuowei Xie

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Rudong Zhang

    (Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

Abstract

The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Yufei Zou & Philip J. Rasch & Hailong Wang & Zuowei Xie & Rudong Zhang, 2021. "Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26232-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26232-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26232-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-021-26232-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Max A. Moritz & Enric Batllori & Ross A. Bradstock & A. Malcolm Gill & John Handmer & Paul F. Hessburg & Justin Leonard & Sarah McCaffrey & Dennis C. Odion & Tania Schoennagel & Alexandra D. Syphard, 2014. "Learning to coexist with wildfire," Nature, Nature, vol. 515(7525), pages 58-66, November.
    2. Colin Raymond & Radley M. Horton & Jakob Zscheischler & Olivia Martius & Amir AghaKouchak & Jennifer Balch & Steven G. Bowen & Suzana J. Camargo & Jeremy Hess & Kai Kornhuber & Michael Oppenheimer & A, 2020. "Understanding and managing connected extreme events," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(7), pages 611-621, July.
    3. James E. Overland & Klaus Dethloff & Jennifer A. Francis & Richard J. Hall & Edward Hanna & Seong-Joong Kim & James A. Screen & Theodore G. Shepherd & Timo Vihma, 2016. "Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 992-999, November.
    4. James A. Screen & Ian Simmonds, 2010. "The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7293), pages 1334-1337, April.
    5. Yang Chen & David M. Romps & Jacob T. Seeley & Sander Veraverbeke & William J. Riley & Zelalem A. Mekonnen & James T. Randerson, 2021. "Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(5), pages 404-410, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weiming Ma & Hailong Wang & Gang Chen & L. Ruby Leung & Jian Lu & Philip J. Rasch & Qiang Fu & Ben Kravitz & Yufei Zou & John J. Cassano & Wieslaw Maslowski, 2024. "The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Zhicong Yin & Yijia Zhang & Shengping He & Huijun Wang, 2024. "Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia pattern helps predict spring wildfire burned area in West Siberia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Aiguo Dai & Cunde Xiao & Ian Simmonds & Edward Hanna & James Overland & Jiaqi Shi & Xiaodan Chen & Yao Yao & Wansuo Duan & Yimin Liu & Qiang Zhang & Xiyan Xu & Yina Diao & Zhin, 2024. "Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D. M. Smith & R. Eade & M. B. Andrews & H. Ayres & A. Clark & S. Chripko & C. Deser & N. J. Dunstone & J. García-Serrano & G. Gastineau & L. S. Graff & S. C. Hardiman & B. He & L. Hermanson & T. Jung , 2022. "Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Yao Ge & Aiguo Dai & Lin Wang & Ian Simmonds & Cunde Xiao & Lixin Wu & Yao Yao, 2023. "Origins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño–Southern Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Thomas Buchholz & John Gunn & Bruce Springsteen & Gregg Marland & Max Moritz & David Saah, 2022. "Probability-based accounting for carbon in forests to consider wildfire and other stochastic events: synchronizing science, policy, and carbon offsets," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Miao Fang & Xin Li & Hans W. Chen & Deliang Chen, 2022. "Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Stads, Gert-Jan & Wiebe, Keith D. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Sulser, Timothy B. & Benfica, Rui & Reda, Fasil & Khetarpal, Ravi, 2022. "Research for the future: Investments for efficiency, sustainability, and equity," IFPRI book chapters, in: 2022 Global food policy report: Climate change and food systems, chapter 4, pages 38-47, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Scheller, Robert & Kretchun, Alec & Hawbaker, Todd J. & Henne, Paul D., 2019. "A landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 85-93.
    7. Li, Muyuan & Yao, Jinfeng & Shen, Yanbo & Yuan, Bin & Simmonds, Ian & Liu, Yunyun, 2023. "Impact of synoptic circulation patterns on renewable energy-related variables over China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    8. Kim, Yeon-Su & Rodrigues, Marcos & Robinne, François-Nicolas, 2021. "Economic drivers of global fire activity: A critical review using the DPSIR framework," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Górriz-Mifsud, Elena & Burns, Matthew & Marini Govigli, Valentino, 2019. "Civil society engaged in wildfires: Mediterranean forest fire volunteer groupings," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 119-129.
    10. Weiming Ma & Hailong Wang & Gang Chen & L. Ruby Leung & Jian Lu & Philip J. Rasch & Qiang Fu & Ben Kravitz & Yufei Zou & John J. Cassano & Wieslaw Maslowski, 2024. "The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Marcos Rodrigues & Fermín Alcasena & Pere Gelabert & Cristina Vega‐García, 2020. "Geospatial Modeling of Containment Probability for Escaped Wildfires in a Mediterranean Region," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1762-1779, September.
    12. Ben S. Hague & Andy J. Taylor, 2021. "Tide-only inundation: a metric to quantify the contribution of tides to coastal inundation under sea-level rise," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 675-695, May.
    13. Komali Kantamaneni & Sigamani Panneer & N.N.V. Sudha Rani & Udhayakumar Palaniswamy & Lekha D. Bhat & Carlos Jimenez-Bescos & Louis Rice, 2022. "Impact of Coastal Disasters on Women in Urban Slums: A New Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-17, March.
    14. Haidong Zhao & Lina Zhang & M. B. Kirkham & Stephen M. Welch & John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Guihua Bai & Jiebo Luo & Daniel A. Andresen & Charles W. Rice & Nenghan Wan & Romulo P. Lollato & Dianfeng Zheng, 2022. "U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    15. Van Butsic & Maggi Kelly & Max A. Moritz, 2015. "Land Use and Wildfire: A Review of Local Interactions and Teleconnections," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, February.
    16. Wang, Ning & Zhao, Shiyue & Wang, Sutong, 2024. "A novel clustering-based resampling with cost-sensitive boosting method to model and map wildfire susceptibility," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    17. V. Savo & K. E. Kohfeld & J. Sillmann & C. Morton & J. Bailey & A. S. Haslerud & C. Le Quéré & D. Lepofsky, 2024. "Using human observations with instrument-based metrics to understand changing rainfall patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Ji Yun Lee & Fangjiao Ma & Yue Li, 2022. "Understanding homeowner proactive actions for managing wildfire risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1525-1547, November.
    19. Yanfeng Wang & Ping Huang, 2022. "Potential fire risks in South America under anthropogenic forcing hidden by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    20. Catherine Wright & Lacey J. Ritter & Caroline Wisse Gonzales, 2022. "Cultivating a Collaborative Culture for Ensuring Sustainable Development Goals in Higher Education: An Integrative Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26232-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.