IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-53470-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia pattern helps predict spring wildfire burned area in West Siberia

Author

Listed:
  • Zhicong Yin

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yijia Zhang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Shengping He

    (University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Huijun Wang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Extreme wildfires have devastating impacts on multiple fronts, and associated carbon greatly heats the earth’s climate. Whether and how to predict wildfires becomes a critical question. In this study, we find that the preceding-winter “warm Arctic-cold Eurasia” (WACE) pattern significantly enlarges the spring burned area in West Siberia. The winter WACE and accompanying snow reduction result in dryness and vegetation exposure in West Siberia in spring, increasing fire risks. A multiple linear regression model is constructed that successfully predicts the spring burned area in West Siberia one season in advance (R-squared coefficient=0.64). The same predictors also well predict the corresponding fire carbon emissions. Independent predictions for spring burned area in 2019 and 2020 are very close to observations, with a mean absolute percentage error of only 3.0%. The findings of this study provide a possibility for guarding humans against extreme wildfires and predicting sharp rises in carbon emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhicong Yin & Yijia Zhang & Shengping He & Huijun Wang, 2024. "Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia pattern helps predict spring wildfire burned area in West Siberia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53470-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53470-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53470-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-53470-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brendan Byrne & Junjie Liu & Kevin W. Bowman & Madeleine Pascolini-Campbell & Abhishek Chatterjee & Sudhanshu Pandey & Kazuyuki Miyazaki & Guido R. Werf & Debra Wunch & Paul O. Wennberg & Coleen M. Ro, 2024. "Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires," Nature, Nature, vol. 633(8031), pages 835-839, September.
    2. Alexandra Witze, 2020. "The Arctic is burning like never before — and that’s bad news for climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7825), pages 336-337, September.
    3. Nanchen Chu & Xiangli Wu & Pingyu Zhang & Shuang Xu & Xiaonan Shi & Bo Jiang, 2022. "Spatial Distribution Pattern Evolution of the Population and Economy in Russia since the 21st Century," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Yufei Zou & Philip J. Rasch & Hailong Wang & Zuowei Xie & Rudong Zhang, 2021. "Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Michelle C. Mack & M. Syndonia Bret-Harte & Teresa N. Hollingsworth & Randi R. Jandt & Edward A. G. Schuur & Gaius R. Shaver & David L. Verbyla, 2011. "Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire," Nature, Nature, vol. 475(7357), pages 489-492, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Aiguo Dai & Cunde Xiao & Ian Simmonds & Edward Hanna & James Overland & Jiaqi Shi & Xiaodan Chen & Yao Yao & Wansuo Duan & Yimin Liu & Qiang Zhang & Xiyan Xu & Yina Diao & Zhin, 2024. "Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Vera Kuklina & Oleg Sizov & Elena Rasputina & Irina Bilichenko & Natalia Krasnoshtanova & Viktor Bogdanov & Andrey N. Petrov, 2022. "Fires on Ice: Emerging Permafrost Peatlands Fire Regimes in Russia’s Subarctic Taiga," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Yanlan Liu & William J. Riley & Trevor F. Keenan & Zelalem A. Mekonnen & Jennifer A. Holm & Qing Zhu & Margaret S. Torn, 2022. "Dispersal and fire limit Arctic shrub expansion," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Yuquan Qu & Diego G. Miralles & Sander Veraverbeke & Harry Vereecken & Carsten Montzka, 2023. "Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Weiming Ma & Hailong Wang & Gang Chen & L. Ruby Leung & Jian Lu & Philip J. Rasch & Qiang Fu & Ben Kravitz & Yufei Zou & John J. Cassano & Wieslaw Maslowski, 2024. "The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. David K Swanson, 2015. "Environmental Limits of Tall Shrubs in Alaska’s Arctic National Parks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-34, September.
    7. Zhichao Xu & Wei Shan & Ying Guo & Chengcheng Zhang & Lisha Qiu, 2022. "Swamp Wetlands in Degraded Permafrost Areas Release Large Amounts of Methane and May Promote Wildfires through Friction Electrification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-28, July.
    8. E. Schuur & B. Abbott & W. Bowden & V. Brovkin & P. Camill & J. Canadell & J. Chanton & F. Chapin & T. Christensen & P. Ciais & B. Crosby & C. Czimczik & G. Grosse & J. Harden & D. Hayes & G. Hugelius, 2013. "Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 359-374, July.
    9. Augusto Zanin Bertoletti & Theresa Phan & Josue Campos do Prado, 2022. "Wildfire Smoke, Air Quality, and Renewable Energy—Examining the Impacts of the 2020 Wildfire Season in Washington State," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-17, July.
    10. Bing Wang & Su-Yan Pan & Ruo-Yu Ke & Ke Wang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2014. "An overview of climate change vulnerability: a bibliometric analysis based on Web of Science database," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1649-1666, December.
    11. Zhongwei Liu & Jonathan M. Eden & Bastien Dieppois & Matthew Blackett, 2022. "A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes: uncertainties and attribution to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Ilya Stepanov & Igor Makarov & Ekaterina Makarova & Elizaveta Smolovik, 2023. "Climate change and challenges to sustainable development in the Russian Arctic," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-18, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53470-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.