IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-29529-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup

Author

Listed:
  • Henning Åkesson

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University
    University of Oslo)

  • Mathieu Morlighem

    (Dartmouth College
    University of California)

  • Johan Nilsson

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University)

  • Christian Stranne

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University)

  • Martin Jakobsson

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University)

Abstract

Floating ice shelves buttress inland ice and curtail grounded-ice discharge. Climate warming causes melting and ultimately breakup of ice shelves, which could escalate ocean-bound ice discharge and thereby sea-level rise. Should ice shelves collapse, it is unclear whether they could recover, even if we meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Here, we use a numerical ice-sheet model to determine if Petermann Ice Shelf in northwest Greenland can recover from a future breakup. Our experiments suggest that post-breakup recovery of confined ice shelves like Petermann’s is unlikely, unless iceberg calving is greatly reduced. Ice discharge from Petermann Glacier also remains up to 40% higher than today, even if the ocean cools below present-day temperatures. If this behaviour is not unique for Petermann, continued near-future ocean warming may push the ice shelves protecting Earth’s polar ice sheets into a new retreated high-discharge state which may be exceedingly difficult to recover from.

Suggested Citation

  • Henning Åkesson & Mathieu Morlighem & Johan Nilsson & Christian Stranne & Martin Jakobsson, 2022. "Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29529-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29529-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29529-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-29529-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. B. M. Vinther & S. L. Buchardt & H. B. Clausen & D. Dahl-Jensen & S. J. Johnsen & D. A. Fisher & R. M. Koerner & D. Raynaud & V. Lipenkov & K. K. Andersen & T. Blunier & S. O. Rasmussen & J. P. Steffe, 2009. "Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7262), pages 385-388, September.
    2. Fiammetta Straneo & Patrick Heimbach, 2013. "North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers," Nature, Nature, vol. 504(7478), pages 36-43, December.
    3. Shfaqat A. Khan & Anders A. Bjørk & Jonathan L. Bamber & Mathieu Morlighem & Michael Bevis & Kurt H. Kjær & Jérémie Mouginot & Anja Løkkegaard & David M. Holland & Andy Aschwanden & Bao Zhang & Veit H, 2020. "Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Martin Jakobsson & Kelly A. Hogan & Larry A. Mayer & Alan Mix & Anne Jennings & Joe Stoner & Björn Eriksson & Kevin Jerram & Rezwan Mohammad & Christof Pearce & Brendan Reilly & Christian Stranne, 2018. "The Holocene retreat dynamics and stability of Petermann Glacier in northwest Greenland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Christoph Mayer & Janin Schaffer & Tore Hattermann & Dana Floricioiu & Lukas Krieger & Paul A. Dodd & Torsten Kanzow & Carlo Licciulli & Clemens Schannwell, 2018. "Large ice loss variability at Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier, Northeast-Greenland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Anna J. Crawford & Douglas I. Benn & Joe Todd & Jan A. Åström & Jeremy N. Bassis & Thomas Zwinger, 2021. "Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Robin E. Bell & Winnie Chu & Jonathan Kingslake & Indrani Das & Marco Tedesco & Kirsty J. Tinto & Christopher J. Zappa & Massimo Frezzotti & Alexandra Boghosian & Won Sang Lee, 2017. "Antarctic ice shelf potentially stabilized by export of meltwater in surface river," Nature, Nature, vol. 544(7650), pages 344-348, April.
    8. Hamish D. Pritchard & Robert J. Arthern & David G. Vaughan & Laura A. Edwards, 2009. "Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7266), pages 971-975, October.
    9. Alexander A. Robel, 2017. "Thinning sea ice weakens buttressing force of iceberg mélange and promotes calving," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, April.
    10. H. D. Pritchard & S. R. M. Ligtenberg & H. A. Fricker & D. G. Vaughan & M. R. van den Broeke & L. Padman, 2012. "Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves," Nature, Nature, vol. 484(7395), pages 502-505, April.
    11. Robert A. Massom & Theodore A. Scambos & Luke G. Bennetts & Phillip Reid & Vernon A. Squire & Sharon E. Stammerjohn, 2018. "Antarctic ice shelf disintegration triggered by sea ice loss and ocean swell," Nature, Nature, vol. 558(7710), pages 383-389, June.
    12. Surui Xie & Timothy H. Dixon & David M. Holland & Denis Voytenko & Irena Vaňková, 2019. "Rapid iceberg calving following removal of tightly packed pro-glacial mélange," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shivangini Singh & Shashi Kumar & Navneet Kumar, 2023. "Evolution of Iceberg A68 since Its Inception from the Collapse of Antarctica’s Larsen C Ice Shelf Using Sentinel-1 SAR Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-28, February.
    2. Jun-Young Park & Fabian Schloesser & Axel Timmermann & Dipayan Choudhury & June-Yi Lee & Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, 2023. "Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Lars Max & Dirk Nürnberg & Cristiano M. Chiessi & Marlene M. Lenz & Stefan Mulitza, 2022. "Subsurface ocean warming preceded Heinrich Events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Ilaria Tabone & Alexander Robinson & Marisa Montoya & Jorge Alvarez-Solas, 2024. "Holocene thinning in central Greenland controlled by the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Mutsumi Iizuka & Osamu Seki & David J. Wilson & Yusuke Suganuma & Keiji Horikawa & Tina Flierdt & Minoru Ikehara & Takuya Itaki & Tomohisa Irino & Masanobu Yamamoto & Motohiro Hirabayashi & Hiroyuki M, 2023. "Multiple episodes of ice loss from the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during the Last Interglacial," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Maureen McHenry & Paul Dunlop, 2016. "The subglacial imprint of the last Newfoundland Ice Sheet, Canada," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 462-483, May.
    7. Manuel O. Gutierrez-Villanueva & Teresa K. Chereskin & Janet Sprintall, 2023. "Compensating transport trends in the Drake Passage frontal regions yield no acceleration in net transport," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Zhuo Zhang & Changsheng Chen & Zhiyao Song & Dong Zhang & Di Hu & Fei Guo, 2020. "A FVCOM study of the potential coastal flooding in apponagansett bay and clarks cove, Dartmouth Town (MA)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2787-2809, September.
    9. Shenghang Wang & Shen Tan & Jiaming Xu, 2023. "Evaluation and Implication of the Policies towards China’s Carbon Neutrality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Tom Holt & Neil Glasser & Duncan Quincey, 2013. "The structural glaciology of southwest Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves (ca. 2010)," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 523-531, December.
    11. P. A. Reid & R. A. Massom, 2022. "Change and variability in Antarctic coastal exposure, 1979–2020," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt & Edward Gasson & David Pollard & James Marschalek & Robert M. DeConto, 2024. "Geologically constrained 2-million-year-long simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat and expansion through the Pliocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    13. Rongxing Li & Yuan Cheng & Tian Chang & David E. Gwyther & Martin Forbes & Lu An & Menglian Xia & Xiaohan Yuan & Gang Qiao & Xiaohua Tong & Wenkai Ye, 2023. "Satellite record reveals 1960s acceleration of Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. Joanna Beata Kowalska & Paweł Nicia & Michał Gąsiorek & Paweł Zadrożny & Michał Hubert Węgrzyn & Jarosław Waroszewski, 2022. "Are Natural or Anthropogenic Factors Influencing Potentially Toxic Elements’ Enrichment in Soils in Proglacial Zones? An Example from Kaffiøyra (Oscar II Land, Spitsbergen)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-20, October.
    15. A. Slangen & M. Carson & C. Katsman & R. van de Wal & A. Köhl & L. Vermeersen & D. Stammer, 2014. "Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 317-332, May.
    16. H. W. Yang & T.-W. Kim & Pierre Dutrieux & A. K. Wåhlin & Adrian Jenkins & H. K. Ha & C. S. Kim & K.-H. Cho & T. Park & S. H. Lee & Y.-K. Cho, 2022. "Seasonal variability of ocean circulation near the Dotson Ice Shelf, Antarctica," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    17. T. R. Chudley & I. M. Howat & M. D. King & A. Negrete, 2023. "Atlantic water intrusion triggers rapid retreat and regime change at previously stable Greenland glacier," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Anders Levermann & Jonathan Bamber & Sybren Drijfhout & Andrey Ganopolski & Winfried Haeberli & Neil Harris & Matthias Huss & Kirstin Krüger & Timothy Lenton & Ronald Lindsay & Dirk Notz & Peter Wadha, 2012. "Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 845-878, February.
    19. Changsheng Chen & Zhaolin Lin & Robert C. Beardsley & Tom Shyka & Yu Zhang & Qichun Xu & Jianhua Qi & Huichan Lin & Danya Xu, 2021. "Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over massachusetts coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 375-399, March.
    20. Jennifer F. Arthur & Chris R. Stokes & Stewart S. R. Jamieson & J. Rachel Carr & Amber A. Leeson & Vincent Verjans, 2022. "Large interannual variability in supraglacial lakes around East Antarctica," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29529-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.