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Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup

Author

Listed:
  • Henning Åkesson

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University
    University of Oslo)

  • Mathieu Morlighem

    (Dartmouth College
    University of California)

  • Johan Nilsson

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University)

  • Christian Stranne

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University)

  • Martin Jakobsson

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University)

Abstract

Floating ice shelves buttress inland ice and curtail grounded-ice discharge. Climate warming causes melting and ultimately breakup of ice shelves, which could escalate ocean-bound ice discharge and thereby sea-level rise. Should ice shelves collapse, it is unclear whether they could recover, even if we meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Here, we use a numerical ice-sheet model to determine if Petermann Ice Shelf in northwest Greenland can recover from a future breakup. Our experiments suggest that post-breakup recovery of confined ice shelves like Petermann’s is unlikely, unless iceberg calving is greatly reduced. Ice discharge from Petermann Glacier also remains up to 40% higher than today, even if the ocean cools below present-day temperatures. If this behaviour is not unique for Petermann, continued near-future ocean warming may push the ice shelves protecting Earth’s polar ice sheets into a new retreated high-discharge state which may be exceedingly difficult to recover from.

Suggested Citation

  • Henning Åkesson & Mathieu Morlighem & Johan Nilsson & Christian Stranne & Martin Jakobsson, 2022. "Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29529-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29529-5
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