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Impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on global human nutrition

Author

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  • Matthew R. Smith

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Samuel S. Myers

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
    Harvard University Center for the Environment)

Abstract

Atmospheric CO2 is on pace to surpass 550 ppm in the next 30–80 years. Many food crops grown under 550 ppm have protein, iron and zinc contents that are reduced by 3–17% compared with current conditions. We analysed the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations on the sufficiency of dietary intake of iron, zinc and protein for the populations of 151 countries using a model of per-capita food availability stratified by age and sex, assuming constant diets and excluding other climate impacts on food production. We estimate that elevated CO2 could cause an additional 175 million people to be zinc deficient and an additional 122 million people to be protein deficient (assuming 2050 population and CO2 projections). For iron, 1.4 billion women of childbearing age and children under 5 are in countries with greater than 20% anaemia prevalence and would lose >4% of dietary iron. Regions at highest risk—South and Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East—require extra precautions to sustain an already tenuous advance towards improved public health.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew R. Smith & Samuel S. Myers, 2018. "Impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on global human nutrition," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 834-839, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0253-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0253-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert B. Jackson & Josep G. Canadell & Corinne Le Quéré & Robbie M. Andrew & Jan Ivar Korsbakken & Glen P. Peters & Nebojsa Nakicenovic, 2016. "Reaching peak emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 7-10, January.
    2. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
    3. Samuel S. Myers & Antonella Zanobetti & Itai Kloog & Peter Huybers & Andrew D. B. Leakey & Arnold J. Bloom & Eli Carlisle & Lee H. Dietterich & Glenn Fitzgerald & Toshihiro Hasegawa & N. Michele Holbr, 2014. "Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition," Nature, Nature, vol. 510(7503), pages 139-142, June.
    4. International Food Policy Research Institute, 2015. "Global Nutrition Report Actions and Accountability to Advance Nutrition and Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7543, eSocialSciences.
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