IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-36499-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes

Author

Listed:
  • Elizabeth J. Kendon

    (Met Office Hadley Centre
    Bristol University)

  • Erich M. Fischer

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Chris J. Short

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

Abstract

Extreme precipitation is projected to intensify with warming, but how this will manifest locally through time is uncertain. Here, we exploit an ensemble of convection-permitting transient simulations to examine the emerging signal in local hourly rainfall extremes over 100-years. We show rainfall events in the UK exceeding 20 mm/h that can cause flash floods are 4-times as frequent by 2070s under high emissions; in contrast, a coarser resolution regional model shows only a 2.6x increase. With every degree of regional warming, the intensity of extreme downpours increases by 5-15%. Regional records of local hourly rainfall occur 40% more often than in the absence of warming. However, these changes are not realised as a smooth trend. Instead, as a result of internal variability, extreme years with record-breaking events may be followed by multiple decades with no new local rainfall records. The tendency for extreme years to cluster poses key challenges for communities trying to adapt.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth J. Kendon & Erich M. Fischer & Chris J. Short, 2023. "Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36499-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36499-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36499-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-36499-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Pfahl & P. A. O’Gorman & E. M. Fischer, 2017. "Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 423-427, June.
    2. E. M. Fischer & S. Sippel & R. Knutti, 2021. "Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 689-695, August.
    3. David M. H. Sexton & Glen R. Harris, 2015. "The importance of including variability in climate change projections used for adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 931-936, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Donatella Baiardi, 2021. "What do you think about climate change?," Working Papers 477, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2021.
    3. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. David J. Frame & Suzanne M. Rosier & Ilan Noy & Luke J. Harrington & Trevor Carey-Smith & Sarah N. Sparrow & Dáithí A. Stone & Samuel M. Dean, 2020. "Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 781-797, September.
    5. Xing Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Wenxia Zhang & Liwen Ren & Jie Jiang & Shuai Hu & Meng Zuo & Lixia Zhang & Wenmin Man, 2023. "Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Jorge Castillo-Mateo & Jesús Asín & Ana C. Cebrián & Jesús Mateo-Lázaro & Jesús Abaurrea, 2023. "Bayesian Variable Selection in Generalized Extreme Value Regression: Modeling Annual Maximum Temperature," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, February.
    7. James E. Overland, 2021. "Rare events in the Arctic," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Marco Grasso, 2022. "Legitimacy and procedural justice: how might stratospheric aerosol injection function in the public interest?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Zigeng Niu & Lan Feng & Xinxin Chen & Xiuping Yi, 2021. "Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-26, June.
    10. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Lee, C.W., 2022. "Characterizing coastal wind energy resources based on sodar and microwave radiometer observations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    11. Rachel H. White & Sam Anderson & James F. Booth & Ginni Braich & Christina Draeger & Cuiyi Fei & Christopher D. G. Harley & Sarah B. Henderson & Matthias Jakob & Carie-Ann Lau & Lualawi Mareshet Admas, 2023. "The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Mingyu Park & Nathaniel C. Johnson & Thomas L. Delworth, 2024. "The driving of North American climate extremes by North Pacific stationary-transient wave interference," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Omid Alizadeh & Morteza Babaei, 2022. "Seasonally dependent precipitation changes and their driving mechanisms in Southwest Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Kui Xu & Chenyue Wang & Lingling Bin, 2023. "Compound flood models in coastal areas: a review of methods and uncertainty analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 469-496, March.
    16. Kai Liu & Qianzhi Wang & Ming Wang & Elco E. Koks, 2023. "Global transportation infrastructure exposure to the change of precipitation in a warmer world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    17. Melissa Rosa & Kyle Haines & Teddy Cruz & Fonna Forman, 2023. "A binational social vulnerability index (BSVI) for the San Diego-Tijuana region: mapping trans-boundary exposure to climate change for just and equitable adaptation planning," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 1-23, February.
    18. Dimitra Founda & George Katavoutas & Fragiskos Pierros & Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, 2022. "The Extreme Heat Wave of Summer 2021 in Athens (Greece): Cumulative Heat and Exposure to Heat Stress," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    19. E. M. Fischer & U. Beyerle & L. Bloin-Wibe & C. Gessner & V. Humphrey & F. Lehner & A. G. Pendergrass & S. Sippel & J. Zeder & R. Knutti, 2023. "Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Kelly Wanser & Sarah J. Doherty & James W. Hurrell & Alex Wong, 2022. "Near-term climate risks and sunlight reflection modification: a roadmap approach for physical sciences research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-20, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36499-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.