IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v220y2024ics0308521x24002166.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adaptation strategies for winter wheat production at farmer fields under a changing climate: Employing crop and multiple global climate models

Author

Listed:
  • Shoukat, Muhammad Rizwan
  • Wang, Jingjing
  • Habib-ur-Rahman, Muhammad
  • Hui, Xin
  • Hoogenboom, Gerrit
  • Yan, Haijun

Abstract

Climate change profoundly affects agriculture through increased occurrences of extreme weather events, directly affecting crop growth and food security. The North China Plain (NCP), a significant region for winter wheat production, faces challenges from the changing climate, which could threaten agricultural output and sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Shoukat, Muhammad Rizwan & Wang, Jingjing & Habib-ur-Rahman, Muhammad & Hui, Xin & Hoogenboom, Gerrit & Yan, Haijun, 2024. "Adaptation strategies for winter wheat production at farmer fields under a changing climate: Employing crop and multiple global climate models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:220:y:2024:i:c:s0308521x24002166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104066
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X24002166
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104066?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Na & Li, Yi & Yang, Qiliang & Biswas, Asim & Dong, Hezhong, 2024. "Simulating climate change impacts on cotton using AquaCrop model in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Wang, Yuehua & Wang, Zhongwu & Wu, Lianhai & Li, Haigang & Li, Jiangwen & Zhu, Aimin & Jin, Yuxi & Han, Guodong, 2024. "Effects of grazing and climate change on aboveground standing biomass and sheep live weight changes in the desert steppe in Inner Mongolia, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Jing Wang & Enli Wang & Xiaoguang Yang & Fusuo Zhang & Hong Yin, 2012. "Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 825-840, August.
    4. Wang, Li & Liu, Xiaoli & Liu, Xuejing & Bao, Xiaoyuan & Zhang, Xuecheng & Yin, Baozhong & Wang, Wentao & Wang, Yandong & Zhen, Wenchao, 2024. "Effects of spring limited irrigation on grain yield and root characteristics of winter wheat in groundwater-overexploitation areas in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    5. Brian C. O’Neill & Timothy R. Carter & Kristie Ebi & Paula A. Harrison & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Kasper Kok & Elmar Kriegler & Benjamin L. Preston & Keywan Riahi & Jana Sillmann & Bas J. Ruijven & Detlef, 2020. "Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1074-1084, December.
    6. Si, Zhuanyun & Zain, Muhammad & Li, Shuang & Liu, Junming & Liang, Yueping & Gao, Yang & Duan, Aiwang, 2021. "Optimizing nitrogen application for drip-irrigated winter wheat using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    7. Hui, Xin & Lin, Xueji & Zhao, Yue & Xue, Mengyun & Zhuo, Yue & Guo, Hui & Xu, Yuncheng & Yan, Haijun, 2022. "Assessing water distribution characteristics of a variable-rate irrigation system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    8. Ishaque, Wajid & Osman, Raheel & Hafiza, Barira Shoukat & Malghani, Saadatullah & Zhao, Ben & Xu, Ming & Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir, 2023. "Quantifying the impacts of climate change on wheat phenology, yield, and evapotranspiration under irrigated and rainfed conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    9. Jiang, Tengcong & Wang, Bin & Duan, Xiaoning & Liu, De Li & He, Jianqiang & He, Liang & Jin, Ning & Feng, Hao & Yu, Qiang, 2023. "Prioritizing agronomic practices and uncertainty assessment under climate change for winter wheat in the loess plateau, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    10. Chenyao Yang & Helder Fraga & Wim Ieperen & Henrique Trindade & João A. Santos, 2019. "Effects of climate change and adaptation options on winter wheat yield under rainfed Mediterranean conditions in southern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 159-178, May.
    11. Qaisar Saddique & Huanjie Cai & Jiatun Xu & Ali Ajaz & Jianqiang He & Qiang Yu & Yunfei Wang & Hui Chen & Muhammad Imran Khan & De Li Liu & Liang He, 2020. "Analyzing adaptation strategies for maize production under future climate change in Guanzhong Plain, China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 1523-1543, December.
    12. Jia, Xucun & Shao, Lijie & Liu, Peng & Zhao, Bingqiang & Gu, Limin & Dong, Shuting & Bing, So Hwat & Zhang, Jiwang & Zhao, Bin, 2014. "Effect of different nitrogen and irrigation treatments on yield and nitrate leaching of summer maize (Zea mays L.) under lysimeter conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 92-103.
    13. Nathaniel D. Mueller & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management," Nature, Nature, vol. 490(7419), pages 254-257, October.
    14. S. Asseng & F. Ewert & P. Martre & R. P. Rötter & D. B. Lobell & D. Cammarano & B. A. Kimball & M. J. Ottman & G. W. Wall & J. W. White & M. P. Reynolds & P. D. Alderman & P. V. V. Prasad & P. K. Agga, 2015. "Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 143-147, February.
    15. David Tilman & Kenneth G. Cassman & Pamela A. Matson & Rosamond Naylor & Stephen Polasky, 2002. "Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices," Nature, Nature, vol. 418(6898), pages 671-677, August.
    16. Timsina, J. & Godwin, D. & Humphreys, E. & Yadvinder-Singh & Bijay-Singh & Kukal, S.S. & Smith, D., 2008. "Evaluation of options for increasing yield and water productivity of wheat in Punjab, India using the DSSAT-CSM-CERES-Wheat model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(9), pages 1099-1110, September.
    17. Huang, Jikun & Huang, Zhurong & Jia, Xiangping & Hu, Ruifa & Xiang, Cheng, 2015. "Long-term reduction of nitrogen fertilizer use through knowledge training in rice production in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 105-111.
    18. Fang, Q.X. & Ma, L. & Green, T.R. & Yu, Q. & Wang, T.D. & Ahuja, L.R., 2010. "Water resources and water use efficiency in the North China Plain: Current status and agronomic management options," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1102-1116, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao, Dengpan & Shen, Yanjun & Qi, Yongqing & Moiwo, Juana P. & Min, Leilei & Zhang, Yucui & Guo, Ying & Pei, Hongwei, 2017. "Impact of alternative cropping systems on groundwater use and grain yields in the North China Plain Region," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 109-117.
    2. Dapeng WANG & Liang ZHENG & Songdong GU & Yuefeng SHI & Long LIANG & Fanqiao MENG & Yanbin GUO & Xiaotang JU & Wenliang WU, 2018. "Soil nitrate accumulation and leaching in conventional, optimized and organic cropping systems," Plant, Soil and Environment, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 156-163.
    3. Anshuman Gunawat & Devesh Sharma & Aditya Sharma & Swatantra Kumar Dubey, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impact and potential adaptation measures on wheat yield using the DSSAT model in the semi-arid environment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 2077-2096, March.
    4. Zou, Haiyang & Fan, Junliang & Zhang, Fucang & Xiang, Youzhen & Wu, Lifeng & Yan, Shicheng, 2020. "Optimization of drip irrigation and fertilization regimes for high grain yield, crop water productivity and economic benefits of spring maize in Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    5. Xinyi Li & Xiong Wang & Xiaoqing Song, 2021. "Impacts of Agricultural Capitalization on Regional Paddy Field Change: A Production-Factor Substitution Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Chauhdary, Junaid Nawaz & Li, Hong & Akbar, Nadeem & Javaid, Maria & Rizwan, Muhammad & Akhlaq, Muhammad, 2024. "Evaluating corn production under different plant spacings through integrated modeling approach and simulating its future response under climate change scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    7. Gao, Yukun & Zhao, Hongfang & Zhao, Chuang & Hu, Guohua & Zhang, Han & Liu, Xue & Li, Nan & Hou, Haiyan & Li, Xia, 2022. "Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    8. Gou, Fang & Yin, Wen & Hong, Yu & van der Werf, Wopke & Chai, Qiang & Heerink, Nico & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2017. "On yield gaps and yield gains in intercropping: Opportunities for increasing grain production in northwest China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 96-105.
    9. Min Yang & Quan Long & Wenli Li & Zhichao Wang & Xinhua He & Jie Wang & Xiaozhong Wang & Huaye Xiong & Chaoyi Guo & Guancheng Zhang & Bin Luo & Jun Qiu & Xinping Chen & Fusuo Zhang & Xiaojun Shi & Yue, 2020. "Mapping the Environmental Cost of a Typical Citrus-Producing County in China: Hotspot and Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, February.
    10. Liu, Jing & Bi, Xiaoqing & Ma, Maoting & Jiang, Lihua & Du, Lianfeng & Li, Shunjiang & Sun, Qinping & Zou, Guoyuan & Liu, Hongbin, 2019. "Precipitation and irrigation dominate soil water leaching in cropland in Northern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 165-171.
    11. Hepburn, Cameron & Teytelboym, Alexander & Cohen, Francois, 2018. "Is Natural Capital Really Substitutable?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-12, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    12. Praveen Koovalamkadu Velayudhan & Alka Singh & Girish Kumar Jha & Pramod Kumar & Kingsly Immanuelraj Thanaraj & Aditya Korekallu Srinivasa, 2021. "What Drives the Use of Organic Fertilizers? Evidence from Rice Farmers in Indo-Gangetic Plains, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-13, August.
    13. Xiao, Dengpan & Liu, De Li & Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Bai, Huizi & Tang, Jianzhao, 2020. "Climate change impact on yields and water use of wheat and maize in the North China Plain under future climate change scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    14. Vassilis Aschonitis & Christos G. Karydas & Miltos Iatrou & Spiros Mourelatos & Irini Metaxa & Panagiotis Tziachris & George Iatrou, 2019. "An Integrated Approach to Assessing the Soil Quality and Nutritional Status of Large and Long-Term Cultivated Rice Agro-Ecosystems," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-25, April.
    15. Christophe Lecarpentier & Loïc Pagès & Céline Richard-Molard, 2021. "Genotypic diversity and plasticity of root system architecture to nitrogen availability in oilseed rape," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-19, May.
    16. Li, Zhoujing & Hu, Kelin & Li, Baoguo & He, Mingrong & Zhang, Jiwang, 2015. "Evaluation of water and nitrogen use efficiencies in a double cropping system under different integrated management practices based on a model approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 19-34.
    17. Huang, Na & Lin, Xiaomao & Lun, Fei & Zeng, Ruiyun & Sassenrath, Gretchen F. & Pan, Zhihua, 2024. "Nitrogen fertilizer use and climate interactions: Implications for maize yields in Kansas," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    18. Zhong, Honglin & Sun, Laixiang & Fischer, Günther & Tian, Zhan & van Velthuizen, Harrij & Liang, Zhuoran, 2017. "Mission Impossible? Maintaining regional grain production level and recovering local groundwater table by cropping system adaptation across the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 1-12.
    19. Lai, Zhenlin & Fan, Junliang & Yang, Rui & Xu, Xinyu & Liu, Lanjiao & Li, Sien & Zhang, Fucang & Li, Zhijun, 2022. "Interactive effects of plant density and nitrogen rate on grain yield, economic benefit, water productivity and nitrogen use efficiency of drip-fertigated maize in northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    20. Yu, Wenjia & Yue, Yaojie & Wang, Fangxiong, 2022. "The spatial-temporal coupling pattern of grain yield and fertilization in the North China plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:220:y:2024:i:c:s0308521x24002166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.