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Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield of Winter Wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) and Maize ( Zea mays ) and Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Northern China

Author

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  • Chuang Liu

    (Key Laboratory of Nutrient Cycling Resources and Environment of Anhui, Institute of Soil and Fertilizer, Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hefei 230001, China
    Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, UK)

  • Huiyi Yang

    (Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, UK
    Current address: Natural Resources Institute, Faculty of Engineering & Science, University of Greenwich, Chatham Maritime, Kent ME4 4TB, UK.)

  • Kate Gongadze

    (Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, UK
    Current address: Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Bristol, Cantock’s Close, Bristol BS8 1TS, UK.)

  • Paul Harris

    (Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, UK)

  • Mingbin Huang

    (State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Lianhai Wu

    (Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, UK)

Abstract

Agricultural system models provide an effective tool for forecasting crop productivity and nutrient budgets under future climate change. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on crop failure, grain yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) for both winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) and maize ( Zea mays L.) in northern China, using the SPACSYS model. The model was calibrated and validated with datasets from 20-year long-term experiments (1985–2004) for the Loess plateau, and then used to forecast production (2020–2049) under six sharing social-economic pathway climate scenarios for both wheat and maize crops with irrigation. Results suggested that warmer climatic scenarios might be favourable for reducing the crop failure rate and increasing the grain yield for winter wheat, while the same climatic scenarios were unfavourable for maize production in the region. Furthermore, future SOC stocks in the topsoil layer (0–30 cm) could increase but in the subsoil layer (30–100 cm) could decrease, regardless of the chosen crop.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuang Liu & Huiyi Yang & Kate Gongadze & Paul Harris & Mingbin Huang & Lianhai Wu, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield of Winter Wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) and Maize ( Zea mays ) and Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Northern China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-12, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:5:p:614-:d:802808
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Rui Zhang & Yingnan Yang & Tinghui Dang & Yuanjun Zhu & Mingbin Huang, 2022. "Responses of Wheat Yield under Different Fertilization Treatments to Climate Change Based on a 35-Year In Situ Experiment," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-13, September.

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