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The changing form of overconfidence and its effect on growth expectations at the early stages of startups

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  • László Szerb

    (University of Pécs)

  • Zsófia Vörös

    (University of Pécs)

Abstract

In this article, we attempt to explain the failure of many studies to show a link between entrepreneurs’ beliefs in their entrepreneurial skills and the actual or expected growth of their venture. By using Frese and Gielnik’s action-characteristics model of entrepreneurship as an analytical framework and analyzing Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Adult Population Survey data, we show that entrepreneurs’ perceived entrepreneurial skills are consistently inflated over the different phases of the startup, albeit in different ways. Depending on the typical form of overconfidence, the link between skill beliefs and growth expectations may be mediated by expectations about competitive advantages. Moreover, the huge drop in growth expectations is not associated with a drop in perceived skills; instead other entrepreneurial expectations also become more realistic and their effect strengthens with experience.

Suggested Citation

  • László Szerb & Zsófia Vörös, 2021. "The changing form of overconfidence and its effect on growth expectations at the early stages of startups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 151-165, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:sbusec:v:57:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11187-019-00297-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11187-019-00297-9
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mingfeng Tang & Hao Huang & Grace Walsh & Maribel Guerrero, 2023. "The impact of entrepreneurial overconfidence on incubator effectiveness," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 416-440, February.
    3. Jaroslaw Korpysa & Uma Shankar Singh & Swapnil Singh, 2023. "Validation of Decision Criteria and Determining Factors Importance in Advocating for Sustainability of Entrepreneurial Startups towards Social Inclusion and Capacity Building," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    4. Jackson Juatco Tan & Virginia Ramirez Arceo, 2024. "The regional entrepreneurial lens: an ASEAN 5 developing country perspective," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Maribel Guerrero & Grace S. Walsh, 2024. "How do entrepreneurs build a resilient and persistent identity? Re-examining the financial crisis impact," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 1963-1997, September.
    6. Pindado, Emilio & Sánchez, Mercedes & García Martínez, Marian, 2023. "Entrepreneurial innovativeness: When too little or too much agglomeration hurts," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Self-efficacy; Overconfidence; Growth expectations; Entrepreneurship; Action-characteristics theory; GEM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

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