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Robust analogizing and the outside view: two empirical tests of case‐based decision making

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  • Dan Lovallo
  • Carmina Clarke
  • Colin Camerer

Abstract

Executives use analogies to improve strategic decisions. However, existing research provides little guidance on the types and number of analogies that produce the best decisions. We examine models of analogy and present findings from two empirical tests. The first test, a study of private‐equity investment decisions, finds that an ‘outside view’—forming a reference class of analogies—performs better than a few analogies familiar to the decision maker. The second test, a study of film revenue forecasts, compares a new model we call similarity‐based forecasting (SBF) with existing methods. The study finds that SBF, which combines elements of reference class forecasting and case‐based decision making, produces better forecasts than regression models. We discuss the consequences of our findings for research and practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Lovallo & Carmina Clarke & Colin Camerer, 2012. "Robust analogizing and the outside view: two empirical tests of case‐based decision making," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 496-512, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stratm:v:33:y:2012:i:5:p:496-512
    DOI: 10.1002/smj.962
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Alessandro Castagnetti & Sebastiano Massaro & Eugenio Proto, 2021. "The Influence of Anger on Strategic Cooperative Interactions," Working Papers 2021_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Alexander Estes & David J. Lovell & Michael O. Ball, 2019. "Unsupervised prototype reduction for data exploration and an application to air traffic management initiatives," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 8(5), pages 467-510, December.
    3. An, Yongdae & An, Jinwon & Cho, Sungzoon, 2021. "Artificial intelligence-based predictions of movie audiences on opening Saturday," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 274-288.
    4. Ronny Behrens & Natasha Zhang Foutz & Michael Franklin & Jannis Funk & Fernanda Gutierrez-Navratil & Julian Hofmann & Ulrike Leibfried, 2021. "Leveraging analytics to produce compelling and profitable film content," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 45(2), pages 171-211, June.
    5. Etienne Theising & Dominik Wied & Daniel Ziggel, 2021. "Reference Class Selection in Similarity-Based Forecasting of Sales Growth," Papers 2107.11133, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    6. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg, 2022. "How to solve big problems: bespoke versus platform strategies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 338-368.
    7. Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & M. D. Christodoulou & M. Zottoli, 2024. "Uniqueness Bias: Why It Matters, How to Curb It," Papers 2408.07710, arXiv.org.
    8. Kim, Taegu & Hong, Jungsik & Kang, Pilsung, 2015. "Box office forecasting using machine learning algorithms based on SNS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 364-390.
    9. Daekook Kang, 2021. "Box-office forecasting in Korea using search trend data: a modified generalized Bass diffusion model," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 41-72, March.
    10. Gala, Kaushik & Valladares, Carlos D. & Mueller, Brandon A., 2023. "Students' assumptions of Entrepreneurs’ performance: The paradox of excess entry and missed opportunity," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    11. Bilal Bourkha & Adam Dewitte & Jérémy Tantely Ranjatoelina, 2016. "Organizing the imitation of an innovative business model: four propositions to operationalize a strategy of imitation [Organiser l'imitation d'un business model innovant : Quatre propositions pour ," Post-Print hal-01987155, HAL.
    12. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
    13. Belvedere, Valeria & Goodwin, Paul, 2017. "The influence of product involvement and emotion on short-term product demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 652-661.
    14. Han Bleichrodt & Martin Filko & Amit Kothiyal & Peter P. Wakker, 2017. "Making Case-Based Decision Theory Directly Observable," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 123-151, February.
    15. Razvan Lungeanu & Edward J. Zajac, 2019. "Thinking Broad and Deep: Why Some Directors Exert an Outsized Influence on Strategic Change," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 489-508, May.
    16. Vern L. Glaser & Peer C. Fiss & Mark Thomas Kennedy, 2016. "Making Snowflakes Like Stocks: Stretching, Bending, and Positioning to Make Financial Market Analogies Work in Online Advertising," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 1029-1048, August.
    17. Ahmad, Husnain F. & Gibson, Matthew & Nadeem, Fatiq & Nasim, Sanval & Rezaee, Arman, 2022. "Forecasts: Consumption, Production, and Behavioral Responses," IZA Discussion Papers 15831, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Zhujun Ding & Sunny Sun & Kevin Au, 2014. "Angel investors’ selection criteria: A comparative institutional perspective," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 705-731, September.
    19. Bilal Bourkha & Adam Dewitte & Jeremy Tantely Ranjatoelina, 2015. "Organiser l'imitation d'un business model innovant : quatre propositions pour les entreprises," Working Papers hal-01202625, HAL.
    20. Meissner, Philip & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "The effect of cognitive diversity on the illusion of control bias in strategic decisions: An experimental investigation," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 430-439.
    21. László Szerb & Zsófia Vörös, 2021. "The changing form of overconfidence and its effect on growth expectations at the early stages of startups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 151-165, June.
    22. Andreea N. Kiss & Dirk Libaers & Pamela S. Barr & Tang Wang & Miles A. Zachary, 2020. "CEO cognitive flexibility, information search, and organizational ambidexterity," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 2200-2233, December.

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