IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/sbusec/v61y2023i1d10.1007_s11187-022-00679-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

I believe I can fly: how target venture CEO overconfidence affects acquisition completion

Author

Listed:
  • David H. Weng

    (California State University)

  • Yasuhiro Yamakawa

    (Babson College)

Abstract

This study examines the role of target venture CEO overconfidence in the acquisitions initiated by established firms. We postulate that the more confident a target venture CEO, the greater the difficulty for an acquirer to negotiate and integrate with the target, reducing the likelihood of a completed acquisition. We further contend that this proposed main effect may vary depending on certain contextual factors. Results based on a sample of acquisitions within the U.S. computer industry suggest that target venture CEO overconfidence reduces the likelihood of acquisition completion and that this effect is contingent on crucial boundary conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • David H. Weng & Yasuhiro Yamakawa, 2023. "I believe I can fly: how target venture CEO overconfidence affects acquisition completion," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 127-151, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:sbusec:v:61:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11187-022-00679-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11187-022-00679-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11187-022-00679-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11187-022-00679-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    2. Elena Cefis & Orietta Marsili, 2011. "Born to flip. Exit decisions of entrepreneurial firms in high-tech and low-tech industries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 473-498, August.
    3. Mathew L. A. Hayward & Dean A. Shepherd & Dale Griffin, 2006. "A Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 160-172, February.
    4. Audretsch, David B., 1995. "Innovation, growth and survival," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 441-457, December.
    5. Sydney Finkelstein & Jerayr Haleblian, 2002. "Understanding Acquisition Performance: The Role of Transfer Effects," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(1), pages 36-47, February.
    6. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    7. Gilles Hilary & Lior Menzly, 2006. "Does Past Success Lead Analysts to Become Overconfident?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 489-500, April.
    8. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Amit Seru & Noah Stoffman, 2017. "Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation, and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 665-712.
    9. Desislava Dikova & Padma Rao Sahib & Arjen van Witteloostuijn, 2010. "Cross-border acquisition abandonment and completion: The effect of institutional differences and organizational learning in the international business service industry, 1981–2001," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 41(2), pages 223-245, February.
    10. Abhirup Chakrabarti & Will Mitchell, 2016. "The role of geographic distance in completing related acquisitions: Evidence from U.S. chemical manufacturers," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 673-694, April.
    11. McDougall, Patricia Phillips & Oviatt, Benjamin M., 1996. "New venture internationalization, strategic change, and performance: A follow-up study," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, January.
    12. Laurence Capron & Jung‐Chin Shen, 2007. "Acquisitions of private vs. public firms: Private information, target selection, and acquirer returns," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 891-911, September.
    13. Penrose, Edith, 2009. "The Theory of the Growth of the Firm," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 4, number 9780199573844.
    14. J B Heaton, 2002. "Managerial Optimism and Corporate Finance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(2), Summer.
    15. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    16. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    17. Teresa Nelson, 2003. "The persistence of founder influence: management, ownership, and performance effects at initial public offering," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(8), pages 707-724, August.
    18. Elena Cefis & Orietta Marsili, 2019. "Good times, bad times: innovation and survival over the business cycle," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 28(3), pages 565-587.
    19. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham, 2013. "Managerial Miscalibration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1547-1584.
    20. László Szerb & Zsófia Vörös, 2021. "The changing form of overconfidence and its effect on growth expectations at the early stages of startups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 151-165, June.
    21. Ye Dai & John C. Goodale & Gukdo Byun & Fangsheng Ding, 2018. "Strategic Flexibility in New High†Technology Ventures," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 265-294, March.
    22. Harford, Jarrad, 2005. "What drives merger waves?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 529-560, September.
    23. Elie Matta & Paul W. Beamish, 2008. "The accentuated CEO career horizon problem: evidence from international acquisitions," Post-Print hal-00486653, HAL.
    24. Chen, Chao C. & Greene, Patricia Gene & Crick, Ann, 1998. "Does entrepreneurial self-efficacy distinguish entrepreneurs from managers?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 295-316, July.
    25. Guilhem Bascle, 2008. "Controlling for endogeneity with instrumental variables in strategic management research," Post-Print hal-00576795, HAL.
    26. Dawn DeTienne & Melissa Cardon, 2012. "Impact of founder experience on exit intentions," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 351-374, May.
    27. Guoli Chen & Craig Crossland & Shuqing Luo, 2015. "Making the same mistake all over again: CEO overconfidence and corporate resistance to corrective feedback," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1513-1535, October.
    28. Daylian M. Cain & Don A. Moore & Uriel Haran, 2015. "Making sense of overconfidence in market entry," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 1-18, January.
    29. Jay C. Hartzell, 2004. "What's In It for Me? CEOs Whose Firms Are Acquired," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 37-61.
    30. Rui Shen & Yi Tang & Guoli Chen, 2014. "When the role fits: How firm status differentials affect corporate takeovers," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(13), pages 2012-2030, December.
    31. Alberto Galasso & Timothy S. Simcoe, 2011. "CEO Overconfidence and Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1469-1484, August.
    32. Dane P. Blevins & Roberto Ragozzino, 2018. "An examination of the effects of venture capitalists on the alliance formation activity of entrepreneurial firms," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(7), pages 2075-2091, July.
    33. Yasuhiro Yamakawa & Melissa Cardon, 2015. "Causal ascriptions and perceived learning from entrepreneurial failure," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 797-820, April.
    34. Stephen X. Zhang & Javier Cueto, 2017. "The Study of Bias in Entrepreneurship," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 41(3), pages 419-454, May.
    35. Andrew V. Shipilov, 2009. "Firm Scope Experience, Historic Multimarket Contact with Partners, Centrality, and the Relationship Between Structural Holes and Performance," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 85-106, February.
    36. A. Bhattacharjee & C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman, 2009. "Macroeconomic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 108-131, February.
    37. Campbell, T. Colin & Gallmeyer, Michael & Johnson, Shane A. & Rutherford, Jessica & Stanley, Brooke W., 2011. "CEO optimism and forced turnover," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 695-712, September.
    38. Galasso, Alberto, 2010. "Over-confidence may reduce negotiation delay," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 716-733, December.
    39. Rajshree Agarwal & Constance E. Helfat, 2009. "Strategic Renewal of Organizations," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 281-293, April.
    40. Elie Matta & Paul W. Beamish, 2008. "The accentuated CEO career horizon problem: evidence from international acquisitions," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(7), pages 683-700, July.
    41. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    42. Kraft, Priscilla S. & Günther, Christina & Kammerlander, Nadine H. & Lampe, Jan, 2022. "Overconfidence and entrepreneurship: A meta-analysis of different types of overconfidence in the entrepreneurial process," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(4).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johannes Brunzel, 2021. "Overconfidence and narcissism among the upper echelons: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 585-623, July.
    2. Christian Schumacher & Steffen Keck & Wenjie Tang, 2020. "Biased interpretation of performance feedback: The role of CEO overconfidence," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 1139-1165, June.
    3. Biru, Ashenafi & Filatotchev, Igor & Bruton, Garry & Gilbert, David, 2023. "CEOs’ regulatory focus and firm internationalization: The moderating effects of CEO overconfidence, narcissism and career horizon," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(3).
    4. Joon Mahn Lee & Jung Chul Park & Guoli Chen, 2023. "A cognitive perspective on real options investment: CEO overconfidence," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 1084-1110, April.
    5. Kaplan, Steven N. & Sørensen, Morten & Zakolyukina, Anastasia A., 2022. "What is CEO overconfidence? Evidence from executive assessments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 409-425.
    6. Pikulina, Elena & Renneboog, Luc & Tobler, Philippe N., 2017. "Overconfidence and investment: An experimental approach," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 175-192.
    7. Pikulina, E.S. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Tobler, P.N., 2014. "Overconfidence, Effort, and Investment (Revised version of CentER DP 2013-035)," Other publications TiSEM 0e3cc6fd-6847-4fe5-88da-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Tuck Siong Chung & Angie Low & Roland T. Rust, 2023. "Executive confidence and myopic marketing management," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 1118-1142, September.
    9. Fang, Yiwei & Hasan, Iftekhar & Lin, Chih-Yung & Sun, Jiong, 2022. "The impact of overconfident customers on supplier firm risks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 115-133.
    10. Ulrike Malmendier & Vincenzo Pezone & Hui Zheng, 2023. "Managerial Duties and Managerial Biases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3174-3201, June.
    11. Huang, Ronghong & Tan, Kelvin Jui Keng & Faff, Robert W., 2016. "CEO overconfidence and corporate debt maturity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 93-110.
    12. Chen, Jie & Leung, Woon Sau & Evans, Kevin P., 2016. "Are employee-friendly workplaces conducive to innovation?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 61-79.
    13. An, Suwei, 2023. "Essays on incentive contracts, M&As, and firm risk," Other publications TiSEM dd97d2f5-1c9d-47c5-ba62-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Otto, Clemens A., 2014. "CEO optimism and incentive compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 366-404.
    15. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    16. Kraft, Priscilla S. & Günther, Christina & Kammerlander, Nadine H. & Lampe, Jan, 2022. "Overconfidence and entrepreneurship: A meta-analysis of different types of overconfidence in the entrepreneurial process," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(4).
    17. Danso, Albert & Lartey, Theophilus & Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph & Adomako, Samuel & Lu, Qinye & Uddin, Moshfique, 2019. "Market sentiment and firm investment decision-making," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    18. Jieqi Guan & Brian M. Lam & Ching Chi Lam & Ming Liu, 2022. "CEO overconfidence and the level of short-selling activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 685-708, February.
    19. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Lin, Chih-Yen & Tsai, Yun-Ching, 2018. "New product strategies and firm performance: CEO optimism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 37-53.
    20. Joon Mahn Lee & Byoung‐Hyoun Hwang & Hailiang Chen, 2017. "Are founder CEOs more overconfident than professional CEOs? Evidence from S&P 1500 companies," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 751-769, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Acquisition completion; Venture CEO overconfidence; Psychological bias; New ventures; Established firms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • M12 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Personnel Management; Executives; Executive Compensation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:sbusec:v:61:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11187-022-00679-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.