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Consumption and geographic mobility in pandemic times. Evidence from Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez

    (Banco de México)

  • Gerardo Esquivel

    (Banco de México)

Abstract

We analyze the universe of point-of-sale (POS) transactions before and during the COVID-19 lockdown in Mexico. We find three key results. First, consumption in Mexico fell by 23 percent in the April-June quarter of 2020 and by 16 percent from April to September of 2020 as compared to expected levels. Second, reductions in consumption were highly heterogeneous across sectors and states, with states and activities related to tourism the most affected. Third, using variation over time and states, we estimate the elasticity of POS expenditures with respect to geographic mobility (measured using cellphone location data) to be slightly less than 1. This estimate suggests that spending in developing countries may be more responsive to mobility than in developed countries, and that mobility indicators could be used as a real-time proxy for consumption in some economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez & Gerardo Esquivel, 2021. "Consumption and geographic mobility in pandemic times. Evidence from Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 353-371, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:reveho:v:19:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11150-020-09539-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11150-020-09539-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
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    3. Bruno Carvalho & Susana Peralta & Joao Pereira dos Santos, 2020. "What and how did people buy during the Great Lockdown? Evidence from electronic payments," Working Papers ECARES 2020-20, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    5. David Bounie & Youssouf Camara & John Galbraith, 2020. "Consumers’ Mobility, Expenditure and Online-Offline Substitution Response to COVID-19: Evidence from French Transaction Data," Cahiers de recherche 14-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    6. Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2020. "Pandemic, Shutdown and Consumer Spending: Lessons from Scandinavian Policy Responses to COVID-19," Papers 2005.04630, arXiv.org.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arceo-Gomez, Eva O. & Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M. & Esquivel, Gerardo & Alcaraz, Eduardo & Martinez, Luis A. & Lopez, Norma G., 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 infection on labor outcomes of Mexican formal workers," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    2. Jung, Haeil & Kim, Jun Hyung & Hong, Gihyeon, 2023. "Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on single-person households in South Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Boto-García, David, 2023. "Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Mohammad Hoseini & Abolmohsen Valizadeh, 2021. "The effect of COVID-19 lockdown and the subsequent reopening on consumption in Iran," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 373-397, June.
    5. Eduardo Rodríguez Juárez, 2021. "Efecto de la educación en la precarización del trabajo en tiempos de la COVID-19 en México," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, Julio - S.
    6. repec:idq:ictduk:16468 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2022. "Consumer responses to the COVID‐19 crisis: evidence from bank account transaction data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(4), pages 905-929, October.
    8. Giulia Mascagni & Adrienne Lees, 2023. "The Economic Impact of the Pandemic in Rwanda: An Analysis of Firm-Level VAT Data," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(3), pages 209-236.
    9. Mahreen Mahmud & Emma Riley, 2023. "Adapting to an aggregate shock: The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on rural households," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 19-36, March.
    10. Andrés Niembro & Carla Daniela Calá, 2021. "Approximating the impact of COVID–19 on regional production in countries with scarce subnational data: A proposal and application for Argentina during the first wave," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 8, pages 167-186.
    11. Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Alessandro Borin, 2022. "A New Dataset for Local and National COVID-19-Related Restrictions in Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 435-470, July.
    12. Oliver Cruz-Milan & Sergio Lagunas-Puls, 2021. "Effects of COVID-19 on Variations of Taxpayers in Tourism-Reliant Regions: The Case of the Mexican Caribbean," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-23, December.
    13. Michael D. Noel, 2022. "Competitive survival in a devastated industry: Evidence from hotels during COVID‐19," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 3-24, February.
    14. repec:idq:ictduk:17374 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Gutiérrez, Antonio, 2022. "Movilidad urbana y datos de alta frecuencia [Urban mobility and high frequency data]," MPRA Paper 114854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Luis Huesca & Linda Llamas & H. Xavier Jara & César O. Vargas Téllez & David Rodríguez, 2021. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty and inequality in Mexico," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, Julio - S.

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